Segwit2x got canceled this week, bitcoin (BTC) is dipping and bitcoin cash (BCH) is surging. I'm not going to get into political issues or manipulation theories, but I can definitely see the two being highly related and highly correlated. I'll also make a prediction that this trend will be short lived. In other words, BTC will resume its upward march and BCH will fall back to lower levels.
Reasons Why BTC is falling and BCH Is Surging:
- With the cancellation of Segwit2x on BTC, investors are no longer getting a potentially free forked coin split. Thus premium is coming out of BTC.
- Also with the cancellation of Segwit2x, investors are concerned about scaling on BTC. Some see the larger block size on BCH as a viable alternative, and so are speculating on it by reducing their BTC and buying BCH.
- BCH announced an upgrade on Nov. 15, so some investors are speculating they might get a free forked coin with BCH.
Reasons Why the trend is only short term and BTC will resume hitting higher highs going forward:
- Once the short term premium players are wrung out (weak hands), BTC core investors will provide a support floor to the price. The timing for this is within 2 to 3 days.
- Once the short term premium players have held BCH post BCH fork, they will sell their BCH for more stable BTC. The timing for this after Nov 15, 2017.
- Scaling on BTC is going to be solved with Lightning Network and Atomic Swaps with Litecoin (LTC), which will allow much higher transactions per second than BCH will be able to compete with. Until the increased blockweight of the Segwit soft fork will carry adequate transaction volumes. The timing for this is mid 2018.
- With the adoption of futures trading by CME and Ledger X, huge institutional money is about to enter BTC. Prices will skyrocket toward $20,000 USD/BTC and all altcoins including BCH will sell off. The timing for this is likely around mid Dec 2017 to early January 2018.
- Once Coinbase users are allowed access to their BCH come January, there will be another large selloff in BCH. Most likely this money will flow into BTC and ETH. Timing for this is likely mid Jan 2018.
Please let me know your thoughts. Hopefully you agree!
