Snow Forecast Hinges On Temperatures Close Call

This is my final forecast call for Saturday and Saturday night. Weather models remain all over the place from the least aggressive GFS and the more aggressive NAM and short range models. After looking at everything temperatures are so borderline that it makes this forecast extremely tough. 1 degree could mean the difference between finishing on the low end of all this (or even lower along the coast) to a 6 inch plus snowfall for everyone. The NAM model has been the better performer this winter so I'm somewhat leaning in this direction but scaling back a bit on its aggressiveness at this point.

NAM FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT CLICK TO ANIMATE

This is the NAM's view of all this Saturday night. It bring the snow in faster over New Jersey during the afternoon and it is all done long before daybreak. The development of the heavier precipitation will depend on the low as it move east of the Delaware coast. There will be a brief period of rapid intensification that will occur with pressures dropping rapidly for about six hours between 7pm & 1am. During this time frame some heavy preicipitation will develop and it simply becomes a matter of when it does and where that precipitation lines up. Should development be more robust than accumulations could skew higher but of course that is a big if. I'm uncomfortably comfortable with this forecast and we need to recognize that the bust possibilites here are high.