Here are my goal expectancies for EPL matches in GW25. I hope it proves useful to any bettors or FPL players out there :).
The numbers
The methods used to generate these are:
- Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
- Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)
The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.
Copy/pastable table version
| Home | Away | Home GE | Away GE | Tot G | G Sup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea | Arsenal | 0.8833227651 | 1.649243356 | 2.532566121 | -0.7659205905 |
| West Ham | Crystal Palace | 1.390188284 | 1.068713135 | 2.458901419 | 0.321475149 |
| Huddersfield | Liverpool | 1.014916504 | 2.163835604 | 3.178752107 | -1.1489191 |
| Chelsea | Bournemouth | 2.129677051 | 0.6577146056 | 2.787391656 | 1.471962445 |
| Everton | Leicester | 1.592985401 | 1.282788927 | 2.875774328 | 0.3101964745 |
| Newcastle | Burnley | 1.08825012 | 1.018646678 | 2.106896797 | 0.06960344175 |
| Southampton | Brighton | 1.236716597 | 0.8700333595 | 2.106749956 | 0.3666832371 |
| Man City | West Brom | 2.528744894 | 0.5759685788 | 3.104713473 | 1.952776315 |
| Stoke | Watford | 1.455787344 | 1.463900047 | 2.91968739 | -0.008112703 |
| Tottenham | Man United | 1.451451266 | 1.123409644 | 2.57486091 | 0.3280416225 |
Summary
- My banker for this week is Man City with a goal supremacy value of 1.95.
- I predict the highest scoring game to be Huddersfield vs Liverpool with a total Goal Expectancy of 3.17.
- Stoke vs Watford looks a likely draw with a Goal Supremacy value of -0.008.
Thanks for reading, and if you like this content and want to see more, please upvote and resteem!
Adam (acelad)