Here are my goal expectancies for EPL matches in GW26.
The numbers
The methods used to generate these are:
- Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
- Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)
The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.
Copy/pastable table version
| Home | Away | Home GE | Away GE | Tot G | G Sup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | Man City | 0.6887447132 | 1.634699752 | 2.323444465 | -0.9459550383 |
| Bournemouth | Stoke | 1.675206913 | 1.155095909 | 2.830302822 | 0.520111004 |
| Brighton | West Ham | 1.417318386 | 1.246401342 | 2.663719728 | 0.1709170445 |
| Leicester | Swansea | 1.650168523 | 0.8707563284 | 2.520924851 | 0.7794121942 |
| Man United | Huddersfield | 2.318141787 | 0.5578781371 | 2.876019924 | 1.760263649 |
| West Brom | Southampton | 1.150344967 | 0.9307080413 | 2.081053008 | 0.2196369255 |
| Arsenal | Everton | 2.060759809 | 0.9426801322 | 3.003439941 | 1.118079676 |
| Crystal Palace | Newcastle | 1.419999497 | 1.228303664 | 2.648303161 | 0.1916958335 |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | 1.551718718 | 1.28740356 | 2.839122278 | 0.264315158 |
| Watford | Chelsea | 0.8720045013 | 2.010513869 | 2.88251837 | -1.138509367 |
Summary
- My banker for this week is Man United with a goal supremacy value of 1.76.
- I predict the highest scoring game to be Arsenal vs Everton with a total Goal Expectancy of 3.0.
- West Brom vs Southampton looks to be the lowest scoring game with a Goal Expectancy of just 2.08.
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Adam (acelad)