Here's what happened on the 27th September 2017
| Match | Prediction | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham v Sheffield | Sheffield | 1-0 | £0.00 |
Winnings: £0.00
Closing Balance: £8.65
Here is my prediction for the 29th September 2017
| Match | Prediction | Prob% | My Odds | Betfair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco v Montpellier | >2.5 | 91.26 | 1.09 | 1.9 |
(The code predicted Monaco win with a 95.72% probability giving odds of 1.04. However, Betfair were only offering odds of 1.33. My backtesting suggests 70% accuracy which should mean that as long as I only bet at odds of over 1.42 I should make a profit. For this match it predicted 91.26% probability for 3 or more goals, giving odds of 1.09. Since Betfair are offering 1.9, >2.5 seems like a more valuable bet.)
Opening balance: £8.65
Bets: 1 * £1 single
Remaining balance: £7.65
Predicted with some ugly Python code.
I've posted articles explaining how it was done - Part1, Part2, Part3, Part4,Part5.
Code available here.