Lightweight is a perpetual breeding ground for great fights right now, but perhaps none will be more hotly anticipated than 'The Notorious' making his return to fight a man many have described as the best to ever step inside The Octagon.
Daniel Cormier didn't say anything new when he predicted Conor would ‘get taken down and smashed’ by Khabib should the two meet. It's a pretty predictable outcome after all, particularly when you consider how Khabib has fared against strikers in the past (see Barboza and Johnson). But Conor offers a different challenge to both of those men, so let's jump in and see why.
Both men have very clear routes from which they can finish this fight. Conor wants to sleep you, and Khabib will look to grind you into dust and submit what's left. Conor will likely have to finish Khabib in order to win, but Khabib may feel the same way; this is a five round fight, and Conor will have another chance at victory every time the bell rings.
Khabib has shown great defensive abilities on the feet, and this is reflected in the ease he handles his opponents, even when they have the better offensive striking. He also forces his opponents to worry about the takedown at all times, limiting their output. These factors make him a very hard target for even the most talented, but is Conor the man to break through that defense? While Barboza had the length and technique, and Johnson had the hand speed, Conor arguably brings all of this and more. His creativity on his feet along with his power could make him the most difficult striker Khabib has faced.
Khabib will likely want to take this fight to the ground as quickly as possible. He's not messing around now that he holds the title, and he will want to make short work of McGregor. What will be crucial for Khabib is landing the takedown early, and riding it out from there. He only has 44% takedown accuracy, but once he gets you there, you're done. Much better wrestlers than Conor have been completely run over by 'The Eagle'. How Conor handles the threat of the takedown will be instrumental in his chances here.
Let's be honest, the one outcome here that is basically impossible is for Conor to win a decision, so he must keep the fight standing and he must throw power strikes. All the while he needs to keep his stance low and shake off Khabib's takedown attempts. If he can rock Khabib early then he could throw a spanner in the works, but as long as he stays in the fight he will have a chance at the start of each round at least.
Khabib has less urgency hanging over him here, and he can dictate the pace of the fight at his leisure. If he sticks to his defensive style and takes Conor down at the first opportunity each round, then he should be favorite to win comfortably. However fighters often don't stick to their game plan, particularly against Conor. Khabib would not be the first man to be overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude of the event, and he has shown an increasing willingness to stand with his opponents recently. Don't count out another McG miracle.
How do you think both fighters will fare? Please let me know in the comments section below!
