Tonight in my opinion we have the most anticipated Heavyweight title fight in the UFC since Mir/Lesnar at UFC 100; which could very well have been the most hyped match in the UFC's history. The rest of the card however lacks a little punch. We got Cormier defending his "title" against Volkan Oezdemir who saw a meteoric rise up the rankings this year by running through a very depleted group of Light Heavyweight contenders. After those two the card drops off significantly. Don't get me wrong, you're going to see some good fights the rest of the way but the rest of the card lacks significant fights. You've got a couple up and comers in Kattar and Burgos who the UFC will try and sell as a major prospect, a couple middle of the road Light Heavyweights in Villante and Barroso which you shouldn't expect much of anything from and the Thomas Almeida who the UFC has been trying to push as a Bantamweight contender for some time now against Rob Font a Mass native. The top two fights are what completely carry this card. Nothing else will have any impact as far as rankings or contenders go unless you see Burgos and Almeida win in dominating fashion and then you may see the UFC try and push them up. Below I will break down each fight:
Bantamweight:
Thomas Almeida 22-2 Vs Rob Font 14-3
I personally feel that Almeida is a vastly overrated prospect. He hasn't beaten anyone of significance since joining the UFC; in fact his only wins are knockouts against guys who are no longer fighting and Albert Morales who has lost 3 of his last 4 fights. In his only two fights against legitimate contenders he got absolutely demolished by Cody Garbarandt and lost a unanimous decision to Jimmie Rivera. The UFC has tried to hype him up in a weak division because he does have some KO power and is still a younger fighter. But for a Brazilian fighter he really doesn't try to take the fight to the ground much and is very susceptible to take downs. Rob Font on the other hand is coming off a submission loss to Pedro Munhoz who is on a pretty impressive win streak in his own right, and has a recent submission win over Douglas Silva de Adnrade and has went the distance with John Lineker. Coming off a submission loss, Font may be a little apprehensive about taking the fight to the ground but ultimately I think he will see that will be the best strategy against Almeida who will be looking to score a flashy KO early. I'm backing the hometown fighter tonight to score a victory by TKO via ground strikes.
Winner- Rob font
Light Heavyweight:
Gian Villante 15-8 Vs Francimar Barroso
Neither one of these fighters has been very impressive in their careers lately, which shows you just how shallow this card is that this fight made the PPV. Villante is a guy that's going to try and keep the fight upright and Barroso will want to get it to the ground. Barroso is a very good grappler seen in his first fight with Darren Stewart where he scored 7 takedowns. Both guys have some decent KO power but don't expect that here. Last year Villante became the first Shogun Rua KO victim in over 3 years, that tells me a lot. While the guy would prefer to make it a boxing match, he's not very great at it. Expect Barroso to try and get this fight to the clinch and ground early and score a submission victory otherwise it's going all 3 rounds and he will win by decision.
Winner- Francimar Barroso
Featherweight:
Calvin Kattar 17-2 Vs Shane Burgos 10-0
For the prelude to the main event, not many people know who these fighters are which again tells you something about the depth of this card. However, Kattar is another Mass native who in his only UFC fight beat Andre Fili by decision who has experience fighting some of the division's elite (Yair Rodriguez and the champ Max Holloway). Kattar is somewhat of an unknown commodity thus far, he scored 2 takedowns against Fili who is a pretty good grappler but he leaves his head in the pocket far too often which will be a major problem when he fights a stronger and better striker than Fili. While we didn't see it in the fight with Fili, Kattar does possess KO power with a strong overhand and straight left. If he gets in trouble early he may try to turn it into a slugfest and score a KO or try to get Burgos to the ground which will be no easy task. Burgos on the other hand is 3-0 in the UFC albeit against some pretty pedestrian competition. Burgos is a striker no question about it landing no less than 73 strikes in all 3 of his fights. He has excellent takedown defense as well, stuffing a whopping 14 attempts in his last fight against Godofredo Pepey. I don't see Kattar being able to get this fight to the ground against Burgos. Burgos being a much better puncher than Fili will capitalize on Kattar's mistakes in the pocket and secure a KO.
Winner- Shane Burgos
Light Heavyweight:
Daniel Cormier 19-1 Vs Volkan Oezdemir 15-1
Now for the first of two title fights tonight. Cormier was given his title back after Jon Jones tested positive for PEDs again. Personally I don't like the move in giving him the title back, I get it, but at the same time he just lost. Give him an interim belt and make him go out and win it again. But DC loves to pretend like he's always earned the strap because Jon Jones just can't seem to do the right thing so of course he accepted the belt. We all know what DC's game plan is going go to be. Press and press until his opponent tires then get him to the ground, lay and pray or wait for a submission opportunity. Nothing will change in this fight. The question will be whether or not Volkan can withstand the pressure and keep the fight upright. If the fight hits the mat it's most likely over. We all know what Volkan brings to the table; knockout power. He's going to look to end this fight in the first minute and if he doesn't he is in big trouble. DC's strategy is to gas you out, he's done it against Anthony Johnson one of the best power punchers in the division's history twice now. As much as I don't like the guy, DC is way too smart to let Volkan sniff a KO in the first round, look for him to keep Volkan at bay with a good amount of leg kicks in the first round then let him punch himself into exhaustion. DC wins by TKO via ground strikes.
Winner- Daniel Cormier
Heavyweight
Stipe Miocic 17-2 Vs Francis Ngannou 11-1
The biggest heavyweight fight the UFC has seen in years. We've been waiting for the return of a competitive Heavyweight division for what seems like forever. We may be on the cusp of that starting with this fight. Miocic is looking to be the only UFC Heavyweight champion to defend his belt 3 times. Ngannou is a mammoth of a human being looking to prove that the hype is real and begin his own reign as Heavyweight Champion. This fight is exactly what you want out of Heavyweight title fight. Two guys that want to go in there and knock the other guy's head off. We haven't exactly gotten that out of recent title fights in this division where you've had more "technical" fighters like JDS, Cain Velasquez, and Fabricio Werdum who looked to implement grappling and submissions along with KO power. Not in this fight. This is an old fashioned heavyweight slugfest that you only read about. Stipe brings a world of experience to the octagon with him fighting and mostly beating all the division's best over the last 5 years. While I would say hes the more technical fighter of the two, he also packs the same serious KO power that Ngannou brings to the table. However, the punching power of Ngannou cannot be rivaled by anyone in the sport, he's possibly the hardest hitter the UFC has ever seen. All 4 of his fights in the UFC have been finished very early in the first round. With all that said, there is just too much unknown with him. Can he last if the fight drags on past the first or the second round, does he have the conditioning to withstand a longer fight? We really don't know about his chin either, will he be able to take a Miocic shot and keep going? Also, while you can only beat who they put in front of you, he really hasn't beaten anyone impressive during his little run here. He dropped Andrei Arlovski who is well past his prime and Overeem who got a title shot recently that had less to do with his skills and performance and more to do with the UFC just not having anyone good enough to challenge for a title. Ngannou however did exactly what he should do against those opponents and he demolished them very early in the fight. I just don't see that happening with Miocic, his technical boxing skills are far too good for him to get caught bad in the first round. Look for Stipe to try and score a take down or two to keep Ngannou at bay a little and stop him from throwing death blows. If the fight makes it out of the first round Ngannou will be in trouble. I'm not saying I think his conditioning is trash but we haven't seen it yet. And he hasn't had the experience of going deep into a fight with a talented fighter like Miocic. Look for Miocic to score a TKO in the 2nd or 3rd round, may very well even end the fight via ground strikes if he can get the big man down. Miocic becomes the first heavyweight to defend his title 3 times and this will either set up an epic rematch with Ngannou or a huge showdown with Cain Velasquez if he can get healthy.
Winner- Sitpe Miocic
There it is, should be a good night of fights all things considered. The card is definitely worth the juice for the main event alone. Let me know your opinions.