The NFL playoffs kick off on Saturday afternoon, and with that we get to enjoy another fun and exciting slate of action for daily fantasy.
The first game on the docket has the Tennessee Titans traveling to Arrowhead to take on Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs are hefty favorites (-8.5) in this one and have an implied team total of 26 points.
The Chiefs have been extremely stout defensively at home this season, allowing fewer than 20 points in every game. This doesn't set up well for Marcus Mariota and a Titans' passing attack that has disappointed throughout the season.
On a two-game slate though (or four game if you include the Sunday games), you do have to take chances in order to differentiate yourself from the rest of the field. In that vein, you can take your pick of one of the Titans pass-catchers in the hope that they find the endzone, but there will certainly be risk involved.
Corey Davis is talented, but isn't seeing the type of workload that I like to target. Rishard Matthews has been the preferred target of Mariota for most of the season and would be my pick if I had to gamble here. He should safely see 6-to-8 targets in a winnable matchup. I can't see myself rostering Eric Decker given his inconsistency this season. I'd generally have interest in Delanie Walker as well, but the Chiefs have done a nice job defending tight ends this season, allowing the third fewest receptions to the position.
The one player on the Tennessee side that will stand out to the masses as an excellent option is Derrick Henry. He's seeing the bulk of the workload at running back with Demarco Murray sidelined and is coming off of a strong performance in the regular season finale. I'm a bit leery of trusting him in this spot though, and may even fade him entirely to set myself apart from the field. I expect the Titans to play from behind in this game, and the Titans haven't had much trust in Henry as a pass-catcher this season. Sure, he took a screen pass to the house last week, but that was on one of only two targets that he saw.
Given the limited options on the slate, I probably won't fade him entirely, but I'll certainly be under-weight compared to the field.
On the Kansas City side of the ball, the one player that's popping off the page for me is Travis Kelce. Tennessee has struggled against the tight end throughout the season, ranking 24th in the NFL in DVOA against the position. Kelce is Smith's favorite target in the passing game and is locked into massive volume that can't otherwise be found at the tight end position.
Tyreek Hill is more of a boom-or-bust play by nature, and the Titans play a bend but don't break style of defense that has surrendered the third-fewest plays of 20+ yards this season. The Chiefs will scheme the ball to him in a variety of ways, and he could pop off a big play and scramble the slate, but he's not someone that I'll be looking to.
Kareem Hunt was an extremely frustrating player to roster in the regular season. After starting the season like gang-busters for the first couple of weeks, he fell into a massive touchdown drought and saw his usage fall off considerably in the middle part of the season. He finished strong though, after Andy Reid handed over play-calling duties to Matt Nagy, and should be locked into a large workload in this one as I expect the Chiefs to play with a lead.
He's expensive ($8100 on DK) and difficult to pair with Kelce, but he's someone who will be spread throughout my lineups. I expect he'll see 25+ touches and has nice touchdown equity.
I hate that Alex Smith is actually a viable option on an NFL playoff DFS slate, but here we are. He gets a soft Titans pass defense and helps his own floor with his scrambling ability. He will probably be overlooked by the general public though, which increases his appeal in tournaments.
The second game on the Saturday slate gives us the Falcons against the Rams at the Coliseum in Los Angeles.
The Falcons managed to salvage their season and squeak into the playoffs, a year after blowing the largest lead in Super Bowl history in a debacle against the Patriots.
To be honest, there isn't much on the Falcons that intrigues me in this one. The Rams have been crushing people on both sides of the ball and I honestly expect them to steamroll the Falcons in this spot. Vegas sees it a little differently though, only installing the Rams as six-point favorites.
Both of the Falcons' running backs, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, have seen increased usage in the passing game in recent weeks, and make for playable options (especially on DK with the full-point PPR). They should continue to be focal points of the offense, even if the Falcons fall behind, which I expect them to do.
The Rams don't allow many touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, and Julio Jones has struggled to find the painted area himself this season. I'm not willing to pay the premium required to get him in this matchup. Mohammad Sanu looks like more of a "meh" play than someone who I'll be actively looking to roster. If I have one WR spot left and need a guy in his price range though, he's seeing consistent enough targets that I could go there.
Austin Hooper isn't inspiring at all at tight end. The overall weakness of the position continues to drive be back to Travis Kelce.
It's hard to call anyone a must-play on a short slate, especially a running back that is priced just under $10k, but I'll be having all of the Todd Gurley in this one. He's the focal point of their offense, is seeing ridiculous usage in the passing game as well and should touch the ball 30+ times in this one. He's also a bulldozer in the red zone and likely to hit paydirt at least once on Saturday. He'll be in 100% of my lineups.
I also don't mind the spot for Jared Goff, though volume could be a concern and I'll be leery of pairing him with Gurley. To be honest, my main build for Saturday will start with the Smith/Kelce stack with Gurley.
Given the volume that I expect the Todd-father to see, the rest of the Rams' pass-catchers will be left picking up the scraps. Robert Woods is the best bet for volume, while Cooper Kupp is the most likely to find the end zone. Sammy Watkins still has big play potential and could bust the slate open with a long touchdown. All three are viable depending on your construction and personal preference.
I'll be back tomorrow to preview the Sunday games and give some thoughts as to where I'm leaning there. Thanks for reading!