Welcome back to another edition of the DFS Drawing Board Running Back edition. Week 14 is shaping up to be a good and we have a number of great plays to consider at RB. This week has it. Stud backs in great matchups and back-up position players offering awesome value. Lets sort through it all and lay out our top plays at the position.
Each week we take a step back to review the upcoming weeks matchups and crunch the numbers to develop a series of position specific articles related to top daily fantasy sports plays. Whether you are playing on FanDuel, DrafKings, or even configuring your season long NFL lineups, these articles should serve as a reference tool and helpful guide to choosing the best players. I've shortened these articles to give you only the necessities and bottom-line reasoning as to my top choices. This is a no bullshi*t article and by that I mean the players and plays I suggest are those that I will be using in my personal lineups. Nothing is excluded. We intend to win. The goal is to make great lineups, win money, have a great time, and share our success stories. If you are new to my blog or daily fantasy sports in general, I encourage you to check out my DFS Introduction post which provides some general context on what DFS is and how to play. Spoiler alert, if you like playing fantasy sports and winning money, DFS is the platform for you. Also, if you haven’t already, feel free to follow my referral links and sign up for Fanduel and Draftkings. Each provides its own set of bonuses for new users.
With that being said, here are my top plays at the running back position for Week 14. Enjoy, upvote, and comment on your weekly outlook. Note, pricing now reflects what is posted on FanDuel.
RUNNING BACKS
Christian McCaffrey - Carolina Panthers
$9,100 / at CLE / CAR - 1
I'm not necessarily looking to pay up this weekend at the RB position but if I do, McCaffrey is my main target. He has been on an absolute tear over the last couple of weeks scoring over 41 FD points vs. Seattle and then following that up with a 26 FD point performance in Tampa Bay last week. He is having an incredible season as the main back in Carolina and simply isn't facing any sort of touch competition in the backfield. Whats crazy is that he is able to put together these insane games with minimal rushing attempts. Last week in Tampa, McCaffrey had only 10 carries but was able to run away with 106 rushing yards. Even with minimal attempts, Carolina is doing a great job of ensuring he gets his touches. In addition to his 10 rushing attempts last week, McCaffrey also received 10 targets out of the backfield, pulling down 9 of them for an additional 55 yards and a TD. My point, the rushing attempts don't matter for this guy. He will get 20-25 touches a game and with that can do major damage. No back (other than Cam Newton) is subbing him out for goal line duties. No other back is receiving early down work or spelling him in passing situations. McCaffrey does it all and doesn't come off the field.
With that, McCaffrey is also in a great matchup this week in Cleveland. I've watched a lot of the Browns this season and they simply are getting killed trying to defend the run. Backs are averaging almost 5 yards a carry (4.8) against them this season and teams are averaging 136 yards on the ground per game vs. the Browns defense. Those numbers are easily some of the worst in the league this season and but for them playing some terrible teams (see Cinci), they likely would be worse. Take for instance, Lemar Miller, who last week put together a 103 yards on the ground off just 19 carries for a 5.4 yard per carry clip. The week prior, Joe Mixon put together 89 yards on just 14 carries for a 6.4 yard per carry average. Unfortunately Cincinnati just sucks, so Mixon just didn't get a full workload but the numbers show just how bad Cleveland has been at stopping the run. Overall, according to RotoGrinders, Cleveland ranks as the 6th best matchup for RBs on the season, giving up over 25 FD points per game. Knowing all that, McCaffrey sets up perfectly for another huge game. Carolina is obviously a much better team than Cinci, so we shouldn't have to worry about his workload getting cut short due to a trailing score. Regardless, McCaffrey is just as dangerous if not more through the air. And as a final point, Cam Newton has been nursing a shoulder injury so I'm sure Carolina is looking to just get ahead, run the ball, and get out of Cleveland. Feel free to put as much trust in McCaffrey this weekend as any other and if you are playing Cam, don't be scared to also stack McCaffrey.
Aaron Jones - Green Bay Packers
$7,500 / vs. ATL / GB - 4
Oddly I like a lot of players from the same teams including QB / RB combos. I likely won't be playing Aaron Jones with Aaron Rodgers but in the event I create a non-Rodgers lineup, I will be trying to fit Aaron Jones in. In my mind, the only thing stopping Rodgers this weekend from having an insane game is multiple scores by Jones, which realistically could happen. Unlike most of the Packers offense, Jones has been playing pretty great over the last several weeks. The Packers finally turned to him as an every down back and it has certainly showed to be promising. His price is starting to rise but it is justified. He has scored a TD in 4 straight games and has 5 over the last 4 games in total. On FD, where TDs are vital, Jones seems like a great play and sure fire to get a couple shots at the end zone. The matchup is also ideal. The Atlanta Falcons are just terrible all around on defense. They rank #6 in the NFL in total rushing yards surrendered with over 130 per game. According to RotoGrinders, are giving up over 27 FD points per game to the RB position this year. They are giving up huge yardage totals both on the ground and through the air to RBs, a trend that has been consistent for a couple years now. The Packers will be scoring this weekend. In non-Rodgers lineups, fire up Jones.
Jeffrey Wilson - San Francisco 49ers
$5,600 / vs. DEN / SF + 3.5
A lot of value opened up on the this weekends slate due to injury and one guy I am definitely interested in playing is Jeffrey Wilson. Matt Breida went down with an injury in the 49ers last game and was quickly ruled out for this weekends game vs. Denver. In his absence, it wasn't Alfred Morris that capitalized but rather Jeffrey Wilson. Last week, in limited use, Wilson carried the ball 15x for 61 yards, averaging over 4 yards a carry. Even more intriguing, Wilson was heavily involved in the passing game where he pulled in 8 of 9 targets for 73 yards. The scare here is Alfred Morris but if you look into last week, Morris was completely ineffective on 9 rushing attempts. I also don't think Wilson is at risk to lose red zone attempts to Morris. Last week Wilson received 2 red zone rushing attempts to Morris' 3. I think the 49ers are simply going to ride the hot hand and I believe thats going to be Wilson. He looked good on the ground and has major usage in the passing game. Looking at his opponent, Denver is by no means an elite run stopping team. In fact, they give up the 10th most rushing yards in the league at 122+ yards a game and surrender an average per carry of 4.7 yards. The 49ers unquestionably want to run the ball and my bank is on Wilson this weekend. At $5,600 vs. Denver, Wilson could easily hit value.
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
Saquon Barkley - Giants - $8,900
- Priced pretty high but with OBJ out, I don't see where else the ball can go. I'm sure they will feed him heavy and throw to him out of the backfield a ton. No question he gets 10-15 targets on top of any touches on the ground.
Phillip Lindsay - Broncos - $7,900
- Need to write him up every week. Just absolutely on fire for the Broncos and looks great. I was worried about volume going into last week and the Broncos went ahead and fed him the ball 19x. A great play until he proves otherwise.
Jaylen Samuels - Steelers - $4,600
- Clearly a great value play this weekend with Conner out. Would have made my main write-up but for the fact I feel as though I don't have a great read on the backfield situation in Pittsburgh. Samuels was a TE in college and has barely had any touches on the ground. He looks great in the passing game, so no doubt he will get his work but Ridley looms in the background. I'm nervous about Ridley taking away goal line work and Big Ben throwing the rock 60x. A great value play but I'm hesitant.
That wraps up Week 14 at the RB position. As always, good luck out there and lets win some money!
Sourced: 247Sports.com / Acme Packing Company / NBC Bay Area