Photo Courtesy of NJ.com
We are so close you can almost smell the start of baseball. Tomorrow's the big day......opening day..........one of the best days in all of sports. After putting together the blog related to recent trades and offseason moves, I thought it would best to follow-up with some detail on specific impactful moves in baseball. Below is my personal ranking of the top 3 most impactful moves throughout baseball and players I think that are set to benefit the most.
Enjoy and let me know what you think!
1) Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees - OF
Let’s talk about the Yankee’s potential lineup really quickly. If you are pitcher, you would be staring down at a lineup that churns out massive power after power. We would/could be seeing something by the likes of Brett Gardner (L), Aaron Judge (R), Giancarlo Stanton (R), Gary Sanchez (L), Neil Walker (S), Tyler Austin (R), Aaron Hicks (S), Didi Gregorius (L), and Brandon Drury (R). Literally everyone, top to bottom, can hit one out of the park. Think about facing Aaron Judge in the 2 spot followed by Giancarlo Stanton. That’s just insane. Loaded with power, switch hitters, and a few lefties, there is no hiding.
Ok, I’m done ranting. Giancarlo Stanton came to the Yankees this offseason from the Miami Marlins in a one of the biggest MLB trades of the last few years. We all knew he (and everyone else on the Marlins) was being shipped elsewhere, it was just a matter of time. What we didn’t realize was he would be joining the Bronx Bombers 2.0 of 2017 and making that team and lineup that much more lethal. Stanton is still only 28 years old and has shown to be one of the most powerful, if not the most powerful bat in the league.
If we are talking numbers, Stanton is unquestionably backed by elite stats. In 2017, Stanton hit a league leading 59 home runs, with 132 RBIs and an average of .281. All while playing for the terrible Marlins. Stanton absolutely demolishes left handed pitchers having a career wOBA of .423 and wRC+ of 170 but also maintains a very respectable wOBA of .374 and wRC+ of 137 vs. right handers. If we are talking power numbers, a similar split exists. Stanton crushes left handers with a career average ISO of .339 and that number falls to still a top tier average ISO of .271 vs. right handers. All of these elite numbers came in Miami which is often considered one of the most pitcher friendly parks in all of baseball (see ESPN Park Factors) and surrounded by a below average lineup. What’s interesting and only shows just how consistent and powerful Stanton can be, is that he has basically hit home runs at an equal rate home (135) vs. away (132) in his career. Now he is moving to a home run friendly stadium that does play slightly better for right handers (see RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool) and will be surrounded by equally lethal players to help ensure no one can really work around him.
I don’t know if it is possible for Stanton to get better after winning the 2017 NL MVP but moving to the Yankees provides probably the best opportunity for him to do just that. Look for Stanton to continue mashing in Yankee stadium and all of the rest of the league in 2018. He lands in my top spot for being the most impactful player finding a new home.
2) Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs – SP
Signed to a massive 6-year $126 million guaranteed deal back in February, Yu Darvish comes to the Cubs as their new frontline starter in place of Jake Arrieta who recently signed with the Phillies. Darvish is considered one of the league’s best pitchers and only helps to improve the Cubs talented roster who aims for another NL Pennant and World Series appearance. He will be leading a rotation that includes Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood.
Yu Darvish clearly brings a lot to the table and in my opinion is substantial upgrade over Arrieta. Although 2017 was a bit of a down year for Darvish, he still managed to post double digit wins (10), 3.86 ERA, and a K/9 rate over 10. He also continued to show great control last season with a K/BB rate of 3.6 having struck out 209 batters vs. walking only 58. Darvish pitched in the World Series last year after being traded at the deadline to the Dodgers from the Rangers. If you look at his numbers in 2017, you will notice that he actually pitched significantly better after moving to the Dodgers, improving almost all his numbers across the board. His ERA dropped from 4.01 to 3.44 while his K/9 jumped from a career worst of 9.7 to a more normalized and impressive rate of 11.1. The 4 time all-star should continue to benefit from moving to another league elite team.
The only concern is that Darvish has pitched and played for most of his career in the AL (Texas) and now moves to a NL team where he will see regular bats on days he pitches. This didn’t seem to affect him with the Dodgers but always is a factor to consider for pitchers not use to stepping up to the plate 2-3 times a start. Additionally, depending on the weather, Wrigley Field can at times be a dangerous place for pitchers, however, should Darvish continue to miss bats at a high elite rate, this should help mitigate any park factors not in his favor (he dealt with similar park factor issues in Texas).
So what can we expect for 2018? Well Darvish has electrifying stuff and makes his living by making guys swing and miss. I fully expect his K/9 and other strikeout numbers to improve from last year and normalize to his career averages of 11+ K/9. He has never really had control issues so continue to expect his K/BB rate to remain elite as well as other advanced metric numbers. Darvish’s advanced stats such as SIERA and xFIP all fell significantly below his actual 2017 ERA so I suspect his ERA should drop relative to last year. Finally, the Cubs have an over/under of 94.5 games this year, far more than we have been seeing for the Texas Rangers. Leading the rotation, barring injury, Darvish should approach or exceed 200 total innings this year with around 15 wins.
3) Andrew McCutchen, San Francisco Giants – OF
This one hurts a bit and is a little bit of a biased homer call as I am a die-hard Pittsburgh Pirates fan but I do see Andrew McCutchen’s trade to the Giants provides him with a great opportunity to succeed. The former NL MVP led the Pirates to 3 straight playoff appearances and ended a 20 year losing season drought for the fans of Pittsburgh. He is truly a 5 tool player that provides you with everything you need defensively and offensively. Yes, the critics will argue that his defense has been declining with age and I can fully understand that but after moving to San Fran, McCutchen no longer has to man the center field position, thus mitigating any decline in defense.
McCutchen’s trade and situation is eerily similar to that of Barry Bonds who was also traded to the Giants from Pirates before hitting like 30,000 home runs each year. Although San Fran isn’t the most prolific offensive park in the NL, McCutchen still lands in a great spot to continue flourishing offensively. The Giants clearly reloaded and retooled this offseason by adding McCutchen, Evan Longoria and other pieces to their roster. Should they maintain health, the Giants should make a run at the postseason. For McCutchen, this means that he will fit nicely within a lineup that includes the likes of Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt, and Evan Longoria. He really hasn’t been included in such a quality lineup at any point of his career and for the first time in his career not have to carry the weight of the offense himself. This alone should help improve his numbers from 2017 and help propel him back to elite hitter status.
If you look at McCutchen’s numbers he actually improved in 2017 vs. 2016. All his offensive numbers to a bump up likely due to finishing the season on a healthy note. He continues to maintain decent power for his body frame, averaging around 25 home runs per year. Remove 2016 and you have a player that’s WAR has exceed 3 each season of his career, topping out at 8.4 in his MVP season. As a Pirate fan, I truly believe McCutchen’s struggles in 2016 and even to some degree 2017 were largely in part of how upper management was treating the team. McCutchen literally carried and willed the offense to wins in those playoff years and management did nothing to improve the team. Time and time again fans and I’m sure players like Cutch questioned the commitment of the team to winning.
It is difficult to say, but I believe Andrew McCutchen landed in perfect opportunity in San Francisco. He should continue to flourish as he did just a couple years ago, now playing for a team committed to winning and field quality players. I wish him all the best. Look for McCutchen to approaching a .300 batting average with 25 home runs and