Sometimes placing the right bet isn’t about only finding the best horse in the race, but eliminating the horses with absolutely no shot at finishing in the money, and that’s what we’re going to do today. Here are 7 horses that I would recommend staying away from when considering who to bet on for the 144th Kentucky Derby on May 5th.
Bravazo
Bravazo solidified his case for the Kentucky Derby when he won the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes in mid-February against a weak field. A month later, Bravazo finished a very troubling 8th in the Louisiana Derby, prompting trainer D. Wayne Lukas to hold him out of races until the Derby. This means that he will be well-rested, but this is a longer than usual layoff, which could cause some rust. His highest BRIS Speed rating is a 98, which is tied for second-lowest among all of the horses that will run on May 5th. Don’t count on Bravazo finishing in the top-half of this 20-horse field.
Flameaway
Cool name, bad chances at winning. When you have an extremely talented Kentucky Derby field, there will be horses that have fantastic careers after running a complete dud in the Derby, and Flameaway is likely one of those horses. Impressively, Flameaway has already ran in six graded stakes races, winning two. A son of Scat Daddy, he has the bloodlines to continue to be a durable horse who is a factor in nearly every race, just not here. The last two times out he’s lost to Quip and Good Magic, who also seem to be outmatched in this race.
Noble Indy
Winner of the Louisiana Derby, Noble Indy will likely be the most controversial pick on this list to have no chance at winning the race. The Todd Pletcher trained horse has only four races on his resume, and three of those were victories. Noble Indy has faced poor competition and practically stopped after falling behind in the Risen Star Stales in February. His signature win in the Louisiana Derby was in part due to a weak field and a very smart path on the rail to save distance engineered by brilliant jockey John Velazquez, who is smart enough to instead saddle Vino Rosso during the Kentucky Derby. Don’t bet on Indy.
Free Drop Billy
Free Drop Billy could also be called “rarely finish in first Billy.” The colt, sired by Union Rags and trained by Dale Romans, has two wins in eight races, and is winless in his last three. He has been bumped and obstructed in several of his recent races, which have impacted his speed figures, but not being able to overcome obstacles is a problem in a 20-horse-field. His next win certainly won’t come in Louisville, at least not in the Kentucky Derby.
Lone Sailor
Lone Sailor simply doesn’t belong in this race, and he wouldn’t be if not for a 2nd place finish in the Louisiana Derby. In his previous two races, Lone Sailor finished 9th in the LeComte Stakes and 5th in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. In eight races, Lone Sailor has a single BRIS Speed rating over 93. Anything better than 15th would be an impressive finish for this horse.
Firenze Fire
Firenze Fire has had a very busy first year as a racehorse with nine races, seven of those graded stakes races. He’s finished 4th in his last two races at Aqueduct in New York and looks to have taken a step back since his Champaign Stakes victory, a Grade 1 stakes race, in October 2017. Unless he miraculously improves, there’s no reason to pay any attention to Firenze Fire during the race, and certainly not when handicapping it.
Promises Fulfilled
Promises Fulfilled is bound to break your heart if you bet on him in the Kentucky Derby. A pacesetter, Promises Fulfilled is likely to bolt out in front, using up energy in a race where he is going to need every ounce of it. As we saw in the Florida Derby, where he finished 9th, he tires in a long race and will easily fall behind as the field enters the final stretch. While it might feel good to see your horse out in front during the first 20-seconds of a race, this promise will soon deflate.
Looking for information on actual contenders? Read more analysis on the Kentucky Derby favorites here:
Photo credits: Coady, Kempton Park/John Hoy Photo
Past performances provided by brisnet.com
Author: @MichaelLuchies
Editor:
Are you interested in writing for the BRO Sports™ team? Do you like talking about sports all day, every day?
Join us on Discord!
© 2018 BRO Sports™ Network