A horse named Justify has captured the nation’s attention with victories in the 2018 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. The powerful colt is now just a win away from being the second horse to win the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978 (American Pharoah, 2015).
Unfortunately, Justify won’t win the Triple Crown, and here are 7 reasons I believe that Justify will not win the upcoming Belmont Stakes:
1. Justify Has Already Beaten Justify
In the closing furlong of the Preakness Stakes, Justify looked like a tired horse. After sustaining a bruised hoof in the Kentucky Derby, experts and media personnel worried about his level of fitness coming into the Preakness, which was run just two weeks after the Derby. The Kentucky Derby took a lot out of Justify, and he did not look like the same horse fourteen days later.
Although Justify won the Preakness over a sloppy track, underdog Bravazzo was charging late and would have likely caught him in another 50-100 yards. On June 9, Justify will run his third race in six weeks, and the longest race of his career. His health is in question.
2. Bob Baffert is Worried
Audible and My Boy Jack, who share ownership connections with Justify, have been removed from the Belmont Stakes. It’s safe to say that Bob Baffert is worried. Baffert has also teased entering Restoring Hope into the race to serve as a “rabbit” for Justify to catch. He is pulling out all the stops, and I believe the hall of fame trainer needs them all to win the race, even with Justify being a 4/5 favorite to win the race.
3. His Speed Figures are Troublesome
Since 1991, no horse has won the Preakness Stakes with a lower Beyer Speed Figure than Justify, who ran a 97. This figure dropped from his previous outing in the Derby (103). Justify is getting weaker, not stronger, and this should concern anyone planning to bet on Justify to win in the Belmont Stakes.
4. 12 Furlongs is a Stretch
The average winning distance for a horse sired by Scat Daddy, which is Justify’s sire, is seven furlongs. Winning at twelve furlongs is difficult for any horse, and it could be out of distance for a son of Scat Daddy.
5. History is Against Him
Winning the Triple Crown is a grueling feat, which is why it has only been accomplished once in forty years. 23 horses have won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and failed to conquer Belmont. Only 12 horses have won all three, and the fields have gotten deeper and tougher. History is against Justify winning the Belmont, even if he is the best overall horse in the race, which he is.
6. Deep Field
The Belmont field is fresh and deep. Likely contenders include Preakness runner-up Bravazzo, Hofburg (my pick to win), Preakness third-place finisher Tenfold, Peter Pan Stakes winner Blended Citizen, Kentucky Derby contender Vino Rosso, and others. Only Bravazzo has raced in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, meaning the field will be bringing their very best to beat Justify.
7. Winners Stalk, Not Lead
Winners of the Belmont are stalkers, not frontrunners. The Kentucky Derby strategy was to let Justify loose and run free, and he did. Justify ran lightning-fast fractions that he could not maintain down the stretch. His lead was large enough to hold off Audible and Good Magic, but this strategy will not work in the 1 ½ mile Belmont Stakes.
We’ll know on June 9th whether or not Justify has what it takes to win the Triple Crown, but I will be betting against it.
Photo credits: Benoit
Author: @MichaelLuchies
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