Schedule Preview & Breakdown
Gold Coast v St Kilda
15th meets 16th here in a match both will be desperate to win especially the poor old Saints who have not won a game since Round 1.
The loss of veterans Riewoldt & Montagna to retirement in the off season has really bitten the Saints hard and they lack direction and leadership on the field at times.
The Saints have also been hurt by their foot skills this season especially in front of goal.
One of the biggest culprits is Billings who spent a week in the VFL last weekend.
Billings is a classy player and did what you'd expect when dropped to VFL, he dominated.
Hopefully that week out of the best 22 and some confidence gained in the VFL can see him capture his best, because he can influence matches up Forward for the Saints when he is on.
The Suns have an out of form Forward of their own who can also influence matches in co captain Tom Lynch.
Lynch will be desperate to get back to his goal scoring ways but he does not have the strongest Midfield delivering him the ball and his job will be made tougher given Carlisle is back for the Saints.
The Suns really need Sam Day and even Ah Chee to take the next step to become goal scoring targets for them.
The Saints up Forward do have the makings of being strong in the future with Membrey and McCartin the marking targets with the dangerous Billings & Gresham also scoring threats.
St Kilda look to have more goals in them up Forward and I also expect them to get on top in the middle of the ground.
I think they have more depth on the ball with acting Captain Seb Ross, Jack Steven, Steele, Newnes, Dunstan and the improved Sinclair.
The Suns will be better for having Lyons back to help Swallow on the inside but lack the run on the outside.
Gold Coast will be helped by the home ground advantage no doubt but I don't think it will be enough.
I am tipping the Saints to finally notch win number 2 for the year.
Prediction: Saints by 24 points
Hawthorn v Adelaide
The Hawks have been freshened by the Bye that came on the back of a good win over Port in Launceston that is sure to of given them some much needed confidence.
Confidence is something the Crows are short on as they have now lost 3 games in a row and injuries are starting to bite.
It only gets harder for the Crows this week with reliable small Defender Brown now out injured and Ellis-Yolman surprisingly dropped.
Despite this the Crows do seem to match up ok with Hawthorn across the board.
The Midfield battle of Crouch, Gibbs, Greenwood, Douglas and Atkins versus Mitchell, Jaeger, Smith, Shiels and Howe looks very even.
Where I think this could be won is in the Crows Forward line as I think they are a bit more threatening than their Hawk counterparts.
Tex will be better for the run last week while Jenkins & Eddie are starting to find some form.
Otten will also go Forward at times and look to stretch the Hawks in the air.
Hawthorn have been well served by Gunston and Breust up Forward this season but Roughie while solid, is a little below his best.
I think the Crows backline of Talia, Hartigan, Kelly and Rising Star favourite Doedee can restrict their scoring threat while Seedsman will play the quarter back role in Laird's absence.
The Hawks at home deserve to be favourites against the out of sorts Crows but I think Adelaide can steal a much needed win here.
Prediction: Adelaide by 12 points
Geelong vs Richmond
The match of the round see's the reigning premier and 3rd on the ladder Tigers taking on the red hot Midfield of the 4th placed Geelong.
Richmond are coming off yet another interstate loss while the Cats have now won 3 in a row since that shock loss to Essendon.
Gary Ablett is finally starting to get a little continuity and his form is heating up.
The little master had 34 possessions and a goal last week against the Kangas on the back of his best on ground 37 disposal game against the Suns.
Joel Selwood and Duncan are also in great form it is freeing up Danger to play more Forward where he is near on unstoppable.
With Danger playing possibly Full Forward with Hawkins as a decoy, could we see a Rance v Danger match up?
It would be brilliant if both sides could clear out the Cats 50 so we can watch those two one on one.
Not the Tigers style and one of the reasons they are so successful is the way they work for each other back their with Astbury and Grimes now top class Defenders.
Whoever gets the job of minding Danger when he is Forward will be sure to get plenty of help.
Taking a look at the Tigers Forward Line now and they have got a very big inclusion this week.
Yes Dusty is back but in this case I am referring to Daniel Rioli who will play his first game of the year and his goal scoring nous along with his Forward pressure will be a huge boost for the Tigers.
With Rioli back along with Riewoldt, Castagna and Caddy who is in career best form, I think the young Cats backline is going to be in for a tough afternoon.
The only way I see Geelong winning this is if they can get right on top in the Midfield but that task just got harder with Dusty back in the team.
Cotchin is also in very good form in there and will keep the Cats on guard but the Tigers certainly need a lift out of Kane Lambert who is nursing a bit of a Grand Final hangover.
While Geelong may have a couple more weapons in the Midfield, the Tigers have more depth over the whole of the ground and I think their pressure will be too much for the Cats.
Prediction: Richmond by 20 points
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