Even casual American football fans tuned in to watch the recent Monday Night Football matchup between two of the league’s best teams (for those who haven't seen it, there is a highlight video below). The Los Angeles Rams won it 54-51 in a record shootout over the Kansas City Chiefs, marking the first game ever in which both NFL teams scored more than 50 points. Many analysts are saying that we witnessed the future of football. Yes, there were sacks, interceptions, defensive touchdowns, missed extra points, and pass interference calls, but in the end it was about the offense.
Here are my takeaways from the epic MNF game.
1. Not Every Team Can Succeed This Way
Perhaps analysts are right that this was a glimpse of the future, but this wasn't an average game. There was a reason many fans had it marked on their calendars for weeks in advance. All season, the Rams and Chiefs have been cutting through the league like butter. Both entered the game with 9-1 records. It’s not often that we see a matchup between two premier teams in the regular season.
And while everyone wanted to talk about the Rams defense earlier in the season, it was clearly the offensive firepower of both teams that dominated. The best defensive player in football, Aaron Donald, was on one of these teams. And in such a close game, defense may well have provided the margin of victory. Yet with each team getting the ball back within a few minutes and finding ways to score more, this game was about more, not less.
Yes, the future may give us offenses that are hard to stop. But recognize that these were two top teams. Most teams do not have quarterbacks like Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes. Few teams have a receiving corps that makes its QBs better, an offensive line that can block well enough to create those possibilities, and/or a supporting cast all over the field with the tools necessary to enable the offense to go wild.
2. That Said, this Game Carved the Offensive Trend in Stone
On Monday night, I felt like I was watching basketball, not a football game. In basketball, the game is fast-paced, possessions are short, and teams seem to put up points almost at will. Defense is valued, but it’s secondary; most fans don’t watch games to see defense. Basketball junkies expect to see lots of points and feel the adrenaline rush of a video game.
That’s also the direction baseball (perhaps the most offensively challenged major sport) has been going as well. Casual fans do not have the time or attention span to watch a pitching duel. Home runs have taken over the game again. It’s all about putting points on the board.
NFL football has always been exciting, aside from all the penalties and commercial breaks. Yet in the past, some teams have won with defense. As an example, recall the Baltimore Ravens team in the early 2000s that won a Superbowl with a dominant defense and forgettable quarterback. That team was built around its defense and designed to win games by grinding out scores like 13-9.
Fans don’t want to see 13-9 scores anymore. We just saw 54-51. Most teams are moving towards more, rather than less, scoring. Good teams used to eat time off the clock to prevent the other team’s offense from getting back on the field, but now a few minutes is plenty of time for a scoring drive. It might be enough for two or three; give them the ball so you can get it back and score again.
3. Teams Will Draft Accordingly
The Monday Night game did not start a new trend, but in case we had any doubts, it set the current offensive trend in concrete. And entertainment is not just about winning; today’s owners are realizing that fans will tune in to see a show. This week's game had the largest TV viewership of any Monday night game since 2014.
And most teams have a herd mentality when it comes to drafting players. General managers and front offices cannot afford to miss on too many draft picks, since their jobs are under unprecedented scrutiny these days. Miss on many and you're out the door. So they go for the “sure thing” players and follow the accepted trends much more often than they take risks.
For example, the herd mentality might mean that if top teams have succeeded in blitzing with outside pass rushers or utilizing their tight ends for more receiving work, other teams might follow suit by drafting players with similar projections (those are just random examples).
This isn’t rocket science. In the next draft, I see two main beneficiaries of the current trend.
Quarterbacks who throw the ball a lot in college, preferably from programs that use some kind of drop-back passing, are showing the NFL what they can do. Those looking to get drafted in the NFL probably don’t want to be stuck in an old style offense that relies heavily on the run. That’s not widely used anymore in the NFL, unless a team has a rare player there.
Why scrape for 3 yards per carry when you can aim for 30? People used to laugh at the high octane college offenses that rely on passing to the seeming exclusion of all else. Fun to watch, but that would never work in the NFL, right?
But now, NFL GMs won’t be dismissing those Texas Tech gunslingers so lightly. Just like Seattle Seahawks Russell Wilson proved that shorter quarterbacks can win (after plenty of experts had passed on him due to his height), Chiefs coach Andy Reid is looking like a genius for trading away an established NFL QB in Alex Smith and giving the ball to a freewheeler named Patrick Mahomes. Toss out that old playbook; now other GMs will be looking for the next Mahomes as they approach the draft. If he doesn't fit your offense, then create an offense around that arm.
If I were a college football player looking to get a payday on draft day, the second group I’d want to be in is cornerback. It’s probably the most difficult position aside from QB. Sure, the defensive line is critically important. A good team absolutely needs a solid line that can pressure the QB and shut down any running game. But with the ball in the air more often now, a larger share of playmaking has shifted down the field.
With all of this up tempo passing, the secondary is where a star can make a huge difference. I think we’ll see the top CBs go quickly in the next draft. Teams can no longer hide a player like San Francisco 49ers cornerback Akhello Witherspoon, who opponents have been targeting on nearly every play in his young career. The 49ers drafted Witherspoon in the Third Round (# 66 overall) expecting a serviceable starter who could plug in as he learned on the job. That's the way teams used to do it; if you didn't have a veteran who could start, you put the youngster in and let him learn on the job.
But relying on that player has been a big mistake, since the importance of the CB position has been compounded in today’s game. Witherspoon is still young and may not be a bad player if given more time, but with today’s passing attacks, you need someone the team can lean on at that position.
With the nonstop passing, weaknesses at the cornerback position are laid bare. Teams cannot afford to wait and draft these players later on. If a team wants a CB who can play, it needs to strike with a high pick and try to get someone who can handle whatever offenses will throw at them. Proven, veteran CBs should clean up on the free agent market as well. A true star at the CB position can shut down a receiver or zone on the field, having a big impact on the game.
This week, the Monday night game is all that NFL football fans can talk about. Some are calling it the greatest game ever played, though I think that's a stretch. It certainly was one of the most entertaining games I have ever watched. Will that mystique endure or will people have lost interest by next week when there are more games coming our way? Time will tell.
Until then, we have highlights. NOTE: It's an NFL game, so the video does not embed; click the link in the player to watch it on the YouTube site.
References:
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25328455/los-angeles-rams-kansas-city-chiefs-combine-record-night-mnf
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2806908-mahomes-goff-showcase-the-future-of-the-nfl-in-greatest-mnf-game-ever
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/20/media/nfl-ratings-rams-chiefs/index.html
All images are screenshots from the NFL game, televised on ESPN.com, taken by author.