Note: This is another interlude before my fiction series resumes. It will be back soon enough. -DP
Before the current North American baseball season began, I made a post about Shohei Ohtani, the Japanese two-way star. In a contrarian streak, I suggested then that he should sign with a National League team, though most others suggested the opposite. Fortunately for Ohtani, he ignored my advice and signed with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, where he not only proved himself to be a good pitcher, but also showed that he’s an excellent hitter.
Here is where his choice becomes very important. Ohtani is scheduled to undergo Tommy John ligament surgery on his arm, which will prevent him from pitching next season. But as his arm recovers (for at least part of that recovery time), he’ll be able to hit. Thanks to the American League having the designated hitter, he’ll be able to hit and not throw the ball at all. That would not have been possible in the National League, where pitchers hit for themselves and every player in the game is expected to play defense (Ohtani could not throw after having arm surgery).
In other words, it’s a VERY good thing that Ohtani listened to the real experts and ignored my contrarian advice. It’s also great for the Angels that he can still be useful for them as a hitter.
So even with the surgery, Ohtani may get 500+ at bats next year. But having Ohtani as the designated hitter raises another huge problem for this team:
The Angels still owe Albert Pujols $87 over the next three years.
The Contract
In 2012, the LA Angels made one of the most questionable decisions in baseball history when the team signed Albert Pujols, to a 10-year contract for $240 million. At the time, he was perhaps the best hitter in Major League baseball, capable of single-handedly transforming a franchise. In 11 season in St. Louis, all he did was hit about 40 home runs per year with an average well over .300 and an OPS of over 1, win three awards as the league’s Most Valuable Player (MVP), and cement himself as a perennial All Star.
When they signed Pujols, he instantly made the Angels a better team. At his peak, this guy was one of the most feared hitters in a generation. And Pujols is also one of the best people in the game, both on and off the field. He and his wife have a child with Down’s syndrome and he has helped raise awareness of that condition. He has raised a ton of money for a number of worthy causes. And he has been a valued mentor to a lot of younger players. I have never heard anyone say a bad word about Pujols, and instead he has been praised as one of baseball’s best leaders.
But this is not about Albert Pujols making a mistake. If I had been him, I would have signed on the dotted line also. It is about the Angels ignoring age and giving him an ill-advised contract.
When you sign a hitter on the wrong side of 30, you have to understand something the Angels ignored. Not long after age 30, the average hitter’s skills begin to decline significantly. Production usually drops off a cliff around age 32. Beyond that point, most hitters drop below replacement level, which means that an average young player from the minor leagues could do just as well at a fraction of the cost.
Production drops with age and it's fairly predictable. Source: Fangraphs.com
And what age was Pujols when the Angels signed him? He was a few days short of his 32nd birthday, so 32 years old when his first season with the Angels began. In other words, the LA Angels paid $240 million for Pujols’ age 32-42 seasons.
It’s customary for some players to demand big multi-year contracts. Often, teams will sign someone to a long term deal and expect that skills may decline towards the end of it. For example, a team might sign a player to a 5-year contract and expect to get 3-4 good years from the player, the extra 1-2 added to pad the amount and entice top talent to sign with this team. Most teams are happy with 3-4 good seasons from a 5-year contract.
But for the Angels, they contracted with Pujols to play his declining years with the team. And over a 10-year term, there was a SIGNIFICANT possibility (one could even label it as a substantial likelihood) that several of those 10 years would be wasted.
In the end, most of them have been wasted. For his first few years in Anaheim, he averaged around .275 with 30 home runs. That’s very good, if not great on the level that they were paying him. But over the least three years, things have declined rapidly. 31 home runs became 23 last year and then 19 this year. He’s averaged .243 over the last two years and he is literally one of the WORST players in the league in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). This year, they shut him down again with a few weeks to go for knee surgery. Pujols’ last three seasons have ended with him getting surgery for some ailment or another.
But here is the really scary part
The LA Angels still owe Albert Pujols $87 million over the next three years. This is a player who can barely walk at this point, much less run or play serviceable defense. He cannot play first base effectively, his natural position. The only thing left to him is to play designated hitter.
Fortunately, the Angels of Anaheim play in the American League, which allows each team to have a designated hitter. Unfortunately, there is only one such position in each team’s lineup. While theoretically a team could platoon two players there, it’s a big waste of a roster position to do so, since extra players are needed for their defensive capabilities also.
And the Angels have this guy named Shohei Ohtani. He can hit really well, and since he’ll be having Tommy John surgery on an arm ligament, hitting is all he’ll be able to do for a while (her won’t be able to throw or play defense foe even longer). Ohtani will be the Angels designated hitter going forward.
Meanwhile, Albert Pujols is a sub-replacement player, he can barely walk, and designated hitter would be the only place for him in any lineup. What on earth is this team going to do with him for the next three years, during which it owes Pujols $87 million? Can the team turn this future Hall of Famer into a coach, bat boy, or community ambassador? We all know he’ll be over paid for it, but there must be some creative way to use his talents off the field, since he probably shouldn’t be taking up a roster spot at this point.
Ownership clearly made a dumb decision in signing Pujols to his declining years for a big pile of money. Whatever they decide to do, good luck to Albert Pujols on the next phase of his career. Back in St. Louis, he was one of the best hitters this game has ever seen. And he’s known as an all-around great guy. For that, Pujols will earn another $87 million.
In the end, I like and admire the player that Albert Pujols has been his whole career. But the Angels made a huge mistake in signing him to such a big contract so late in his career. Suggestion: the team could hire him to a personal services contract and let him earn the money not on the field (where his decline probably will continue), but in the community. Pujols could be a great full-time community ambassador for the team, which would be a wonderful way for him to earn his salary.
References:
https://halohangout.com/2018/08/30/albert-pujols-is-done-for-the-season/
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-adrian-beltre-has-defied-father-time/
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml
Most photos are used under a license from Creative Commons via Wikimedia.com with the following credits: Keith Allison (top and second photos), John Max Mena (last photo). Image of Pujols with shaved head is from underdogsports.com. The chart is credited in the text.