Week 2 Recap
Last week was tough-we knew that going in. I only did two drafts which is far fewer than I normally do. I won one of them despite drafting Michael Thomas (13.9) and Alvin Kamara(6.5). The injury to Brees didn't help. What saved my team was Lamar Jackson who scored 30.88 points, Austin Ekeler (20.3), and Keenan Allen (13.8). (remember I said to wait and get him last). The team finished with 85.38 points which was easily the winner.
The second team? Not so good. Tom Brady (24.66) and Saquon Barkley (21.0) were solid, but I also had Kamara, JuJu Smith-Schuster (10.9), and Sammy Watkins (7.9). Ironically the team that won also had Michael Thomas and Keenan Allen.
That makes 1 for 2 from last week. We're looking for a 40% win rate - so far so good, but we're talking a very small sample size. I want to do around 100 drafts throughout the year so I've got a long long way to go. I don't know if you care about all of this, but I want you to know I'm putting my money where my mouth is.
So how much do I like this week? I've already done four drafts and I will be doing more! Here are the projections:
Quarterbacks
The Draft top 3 QBs are also our top three. The only difference is the exact order. We have Dak Prescott ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.
It's sufficiently close that if you do more than three drafts, you should start mixing in Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson where you can get them after your first few picks.
Runningbacks
First of all, I had to make a change to ranks. The RB and WR/TE ranks now reflect positional ranks AND Draft overall RB?WR/TE ranks. I figured it's more useful to know that the highest projected WR may be being drafted after the first five RBs or whatever.
Spoiler alert. I don't know why Draft's rankings are whacked, but most of the people I drafted against drafted Zeke and Dalvin Cook higher than these ranks suggested. Zeke was even picked first overall in one of the four drafts I did.
McCaffrey is our #1 pick no matter what. Our #2 pick is Ezekiel Elliott. I did one draft where these guys were taken first and second overall. I did another from the second spot where I got both of them. I'm not too surprised about that, but Cook got snatched up way higher than I expected in almost every draft I did. Prepare for that.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Bunch of meh frankly. We do love Julio Jones and Keenan Allen though.
Big note is Michael Thomas. We're way lower on him than Draft.
First Position
We're pretty much punting QB in almost every spot especially the First Position. In some weeks, it make sense to start with a WR, but not this week. If you draft from the First Position 10 times, you should start with Christian McCaffrey 7 times and Zeke three times. Here's a likely scenario(doesn't matter when the QBs get taken as long as they go before the pick gets back to you):
I did four drafts to see how drafts were unfolding. I started one McCaffrey, Zeke, Julio, Davante Adams, Lamar Jackson(told you to mix him in). I like it, but I couldn't get Zeke in the second draft. Here's how to deal with that:
If by chance the other two teams snatch up 4 RBs, focus on WRs(Julio and Keenan Allen), and snag Cook, Ekeler, or Kamara with one of your last picks. The worst case scenario happened in my second draft. After McCaffrey, Teams 2 and 3 drafted Barkley, Zeke, Ekeler, and Cook. Certainly not ideal, but my team can hold it's own.
Position Two
This might be my favorite spot.
See that 36% market share! That's easily higher than anything we had a shot at last week. We want to start McCaffrey-Zeke. There's a good chance you get both of them here, but a Zeke-Ekeler or McCaffrey-Ekeler works almost as well. You also have a good shot at getting Allen with your third pick. One of my five drafted teams was from Second Position and I drafted this exact team. This might be worse case scenario:
This is why I love this position. This is the absolute worst case scenario and we still have a decent advantage.
One last not. If McCaffrey gets drafted first, don't get cute and draft Ekeler hoping Zeke gets back to you. You're way better off drafting Zeke first and hoping Ekeler gets back to you. You're in a world of hurt if you start Ekeler-Julio.
Position Three
This is one of the reasons I'm going to do a lot of drafts this week. There's ways to get an advantage from every position. I'll start with a dream scenario because last week teams were grasping at QBs early. I think the rain in KC has scared some folks off, but here we go:
This scenario holds up in any case where any two of Mahomes, Jackson, Barkley, or Cook go before your pick. I wouldn't say it's likely, but it is possible. Here's the most likely scenario:
I'd be surprised if Zeke and McCaffrey get drafted before you, but I'd be shocked if they both went before you. More than likely one of them will be available. We don't get a whole lot of Ekeler, but this is a good spot for him. We're in good shape although market share swings wildly if Team 1 gets Cook instead of Bell and/or Team 2 goes for Amari Cooper.
Did I say I'd be shocked if McCaffrey and Zeke both get drafted before you. It happened to me. Here's theoretically what you should do:
The good news is we're still the top projected team, but it's a three-way race. It's actually a losing money proposition long term. We'll call this the F-it play. If we can't get the players we want, we may as well get come of the players we've been avoiding. Here's your chance to get Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley, DeAndre Hopkins, etc. Draft a crazy team and walk out of that draft like you just took it down(even though you're certain it's a dead team). May as well have fun with it. F-it.
Help Me Help You
I'm really trying to figure out what fantasy football related content resonates with the Steemit community. I've been writing for the Fantasy Footballers and a couple other sites for years. I can literally write about just about anything fantasy related. Since there aren't too many people reading these, you're lucky. Let me know what you wan to see and I'll make it happen. You can also find me on twitter here: https://twitter.com/FF_Gouge
Happy Hunting. I hope to not see you in the drafts!!!
Gouge
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