Tues: Previous Week Recap/Waiver Wire
Thurs: Thursday Night Preview
Sat: 3-Person Draft Article
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Week 3 Recap
I really liked the setup last week and played a whole lot. The players that we were targeting crushed it for the most part. Christian McCaffrey (26.3), Julio Jones (22.8), Keenan Allen (37.1), and Dak Prescott (23.54). The only borderline disappointment was Ezekiel Elliott, but even he scored 14.9. Almost as important as the players we were targeting is the ones we were not getting very much of. Austin Ekeler finished with 11.6 and Saquon Barkley with 5.7 (injury). We also did pretty well with our last-ditch players including Amari Cooper (23.8), Dalvin Cook (22.3), and Alvin Kamara (32.6). Of the drafts I did lose, I had Saquon Barkley (5.7) and/or Davante Adams(7.6).
Where I did two drafts in Week 2 and won one of them, I ramped it up to 10 $5 drafts and won six of them in Week 3. That brings our $5 draft total to 7/12 ($60 wagered, $94.50 won) on the year. I also won a $1 draft I accidentally joined and a $10 draft I decided to throw in there, but those don't count. For the year we have a 58.3% win rate, which is well above the 38% win rate we need to break even. Last week was last week though. I want you to know I'm putting my money where my mouth is, but we need to look at Week 4.
Quarterbacks
Once again, QBs are whatever. I don't know why Draft is showing Mahomes as the number three QB(it might change by the time this thing posts). He consistently gets picked first in the first couple of rounds. I like him if we can get him after our studs, but I'm fine picking up Russell Wilson who is ranked well behind he top-3. There is an argument to be made about reaching just a bit for Lamar Jackson. It virtually guarantees someone ends up with Deshaun Watson who we like, just not as much as OUR top three.
Runningbacks
The problem we have this week is that Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, and Joe Mixon play outside the slate. It means Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler are by far the best RBs available. There really isn't a whole lot of separation among the rest of the RBs.
My brain say one thing (target Cook early despite a matchup against Chicago), but I like David Johnson this week. There's just not a whole lot of advantage to go around.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
It's basically Keenan Allen, Julio Jones, and everyone else. The larger issue is our top-4 align with Draft's top-4 and there's not a lot of separation after that. The obvious advantage we have is Odell Beckham Jr. We can wait as long as we want to and get him for free.
First Position
No surprise with how we start. You can go Austin Ekeler, but I like Christia McCaffrey more:
It's fine. We have a little advantage. It's not optimal, but knowing that we were going to get Russell Wilson late, I wouldn't hate getting Tyler Lockett instead of Travis Kelce. I wouldn't be shocked if Julio Jones falls to us. Here's how that would play out:
We get a bit of a boost in fantasy market share. There's really not much more we can do from this spot. If you happen to get the first pick three or more times, I would mix in Ekeler about one-third of the time.
Position Two
The start is pretty scripted. You're pretty much going to take McCaffrey or Ekeler. The rest really depends on what Team 3 does. I think there's a 50/50 chance they go Keenan Allen/Julio Jones or Keenan Allen/Patrick Mahomes. Here's how it plays out:
Position Two might be my favorite draft spot, but it's still not the 35%+ smash spot we had last week from a couple different positions.
Position Three
We'd like to see Ekeler or McCaffrey fall, but we're probably looking at Allen/Julio, which I don't like and here's why:
Technically we still have an advantage, but it's slim. It also feels like we're chasing last week's results with Allen and Julio. This seems aggressive, but I like the idea of a QB-WR stack. In this case it's Mahomes/Watkins, but you could do Mahomes-Kelce-Watkins, or Wilson-Lockett, or even Jackson-Brown.
There's a not entirely non-existent chance you can stack Ekeler-Allen. Pay attention to this, because you might be able to do it from the Second Position as well:
This requires a bit of luck. Basically someone needs to do something weird with the first or second pick, but I like the idea of the Allen-Ekeler stack. One of not both of them will explode in this game. I tried out a few drafts while writing this and ended up with this team(albeit from the Second Position):
I'd have no problem throwing David Johnson in there for Dalvin Cook.
Conclusion
I certainly won't be doing 10 drafts the way this week is setting up, but I think the Ekeler/Allen stack could be hugely profitable. If I can finagle that stack often enough from the Second or Third Position, I might play more. This piece is by far my favorite weekly article. For one thing, it let's me know how/when I can dominate my opponents in these drafts so the profit earned alone is worth the time invested. If there's any fantasy questions I can help you with, please let me know.