It looks like we have another barn-burner coming up for Thursday Night Football between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. Both teams rely on strong defenses and the run game to wear their opponents out, but you never know when one of these low-scoring games will turn into a shootout. That's the hope for TNF, especially since no team has exceeded 20 points on TNF through the first two weeks and this game has one of the lowest over/unders we're going to see all year.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Temp: 73°
Precipitation: Drizzle Probable
Wind: 13 mph
Wind Gusts: 20 mph
Where to Watch: NFLN, Yahoo Sports App, Verizon NFL App
Betting Line and Implied Odds
Rarely do you see an over/under less than 40, but here we are. The current over/under is 38 with the Titans favored by 2. This gives the Titans an implied score of 20 and the Jaguars 18. This pretty much means Vegas doesn't have faith in Marcus Mariota or Gardner Minshew's ability to move the ball effectively.
Weather
The winds are not quite where we need to start panicking too much especially since we're not expecting either team to throw much anyways. It's more of a concern for the kicker, but even that shouldn't be an issue. The rain shouldn't be hard enough to have much of an affect either.
DFS TNF DraftKings Breakdown
Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota ($15,000), Gardner Minshew ($13,800)
This isn't exactly the type of pairing you expect big things from especially given that both of them are facing tough defenses. While you wouldn't exactly bet on one of these players having a big game, there is a little bit of game theory to play with. I can't see a scenario where both QBs just go off.
Mariota has very few games in his entire career with 300+ yards and 3 or more TDs. He's played especially poorly against the Jaguars. Minshew has been good in relief, but he had a case of the fumblies last week and couldn't get much going against a pedestrian Houston defense. If you play either of these QBs, it's because you expect them to get volume because their defense keeps the opposing offense off the field.
Way out there scenario:
What if Jacksonville's defense completely stymies Tennessee and Mariota gives up a couple bad interceptions? Tennessee goes into halftime down by 14 or more and Mariota has some ridiculous stat line like 8/15 for 67 yards, 0 TDs, 2 interceptions, takes a few sacks, and has a fumble. Would it be possible that Tennessee could turn to Ryan Tannehill if Mariota struggles bad(or gets hurt )?
I think so. Tannehill's $6,200 DK price lets you do a lot of things. He also may be willing to take shots to Corey Davis and Adam Humphries - two players flying way below the radar because A-Mariota hasn't targeted them much and B-Tennessee has yet to fall behind by more than a TD. It doesn't get much more contrarian. Do something like Jax Def, Leonard Fournette, Corey Davis, Delanie Walker, a K, and Tannehill. It's just crazy enough to take down a GPP.
Runningbacks
Derrick Henry ($10,600), Leonard Fournette ($9,800), Dion Lewis ($6,300)
Derrick Henry has posted back-to-back solid weeks and is actually one of the top RBs in fantasy including PPR leagues. Those facts along with his performance against Jacksonville last year make him THE chalk for this game. As long as the game is anything close, Tennessee will keep feeding the ball to Henry, but we can't forget that Henry has a long history of stinker games. He's chalk and he should be in some if not most lineups, but a good contrarian play would be to avoid him entirely.
Dion Lewis has almost no value unless Tennessee falls behind. Even then he's going to need to break off a long reception or two to be of value. He's been a complete non-factor in the Tennessee offense for the last 9 games. You have to go back to Week 10 of last year to find the last time he cracked 50 yards. He's had 1 TD since Week 3 last year.
Leonard Fournette has been the definition of a bellcow, but the injury to Nick Foles and a struggling offense has kept his fantasy results in check. I like him a lot in this one. He'll be heavily involved regardless of the score.
Wide Receivers
DJ Chark Jr ($11,800), DeDe Westbrook ($11,100), Chris Conley ($10,500), Marqise Lee ($9,900), Corey Davis ($9,000), A.J. Brown ($8,400), Adam Humphries ($4,800)
It doesn't get much uglier. Chark has been on a tear, but he's not that much better than any of the other WRs on Jacksonville. Any of them can go off and any of them can disappear. Also interesting to note Marqise Lee seems to be healthy(ish) for this one and could be a factor.
Tennessee's receivers have been mostly no-shows. Corey Davis is due for a decent game, but Jalen Ramsay presents a tough challenge. A.J. Brown had a nice Week 1, but is coming into this game banged up. Adam Humphries hasn't been used very much, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him be used more against a Jacksonville team with a good secondary and pass rush.
I've honestly got nothing. You may as well throw darts to figure out which WR to plug in. That's analysis for you.
Tight Ends
Delanie Walker ($12,300), James O'Shaughnessy ($2,600), Geoff Swaim ($2,100), Jonnu Smith ($900)
It's pretty bad when a 35-year-old TE is the most expensive non-QB on the slate, but he's a target magnet for Mariota. He's a good play almost regardless of the outcome, but especially if Tennessee falls behind early. Swaim and O'Shaughnessy have been splitting snaps and basically pilfering from each other. You're basically looking for one of these guys to get a TD, which is probable only if the game gets skewed heavily in favor of either team. Same goes for Smith, but Smith only has one target on the year. As long as Walker is on the field, Smith has no value.
Defenses
Jaguars Def ($5,700), Titans ($5,200)
Yes to defenses. You're going to have a lot of lineups with the RB-Def stack, but both of these defenses against these offenses are capable of all sorts of havoc. This wouldn't be a bad week to have a Def-Def-K-K stack. The problem is, it'll be nearly impossible to separate that roster construction from the field.
Kickers
Josh Lambo ($5,100), Cairo Santos ($3,600)
You shouldn't have many lineups without at least one of these kickers despite the moderate winds in Jacksonville. We're one year removed from a 9-6 game between these two teams. I mean, it is what it is.
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