As a football fan, I think it's safe to say that judging the viability of your NFL team is largely built around the financial decisions that your team makes.
It's interesting looking at Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen vs The Cleveland Browns and Deshaun Watson.
Now, on paper, Josh Allen is on contract for one more year than Watson for $28 million more. Right then and there, the Allen contract is more attractive than Watson's because you've got a top tier quarterback for an extra year for only $28 million extra in a market where top quarterbacks are averaging $40 million a season.
When you get into the details, the Browns are looking stupider and the Bills are looking smarter.
The only year in which both Watson and Allen will both be on contract in which Allen will be a bigger cap hit is this year. Allen is on the fifth year option of his rookie deal and making his guaranteed $16.4 million whereas Watson is only going to be a $10 million cap hit. This is probably the smartest move that the Browns made because Watson is likely to be suspended for a large chunk of the season if not all of it.
After this season, Watson's contract is all guaranteed salary and by-year signing bonuses. They're all guaranteed and count against the Browns' cap. So, from 2023 to 2026, the Browns will be devoting just under $55 million of their cap to Watson.
Allen's cap hit peaks in 2025 at $51.2 million. Every other year Allen will count for about $10 million less against the cap than Watson.
What makes Allen's contract even more team friendly is the guaranteed money (or lack thereof) and the bonus structure. God forbid anything bad happen to Josh Allen or it turn out that the last two seasons were flukes, the Bills have an out after the 2025 season. If Allen stops looking like a superstar for some reason, the Bills can release or trade him after 2025 for only $8.4 million in dead cap which would result in $34 million in savings. After that, all bets are off unless Allen gets a new contract.
By contrast, the Browns have no out with Watson. Since his contract is fully guaranteed, they would be paying him the near $55 million a year whether he's on the roster or not.
On top of all of this, yes, Browns fans, I know that Watson has been an elite quarterback and, if he plays like he did a couple years ago, he's an upgrade from Baker Mayfield. That said, he hasn't played in a year. He's likely to miss at least a quarter of the season this year if not more. Let's be real, when he does come back, it's gonna take some time for him to get back to his former self. To put it bluntly, I don't think y'all are making the playoffs this year and next year you're gonna have to make cut backs on other positions to account for the additional $44.9 million in cap that you're gonna have to spend on Watson.
The reality is that, even if the off-field issues weren't a problem with Watson, this contract doesn't make a ton of sense in context.