Hello everyone,
that's my first post to give you valuebets, mainly for soccer, tennis, basketball and icehockey.
Let me introduce myself and what you can expect from my posts here (to skip this you can head over to todays bets by scrolling down ^^):
About me:
I’m an average nerd with only just two main interests: Sports and... Mathematics!!!
If your looking for a tipster who promises you to get rich quickly, please search for another one, because I'm not a Magician, nor Aladdin's Jinn from a bottle. I won't tell you that it's possible to earn millions of Dollars, Euros or Pounds from a starting balance of just 10 bucks, but it is possible to earn a steady income with sports betting.
You just have to calculate the possibillity of an outcome correctly and find the so called Value Bets to beat the bookies in the long run!!!
What are "Value Bets"?
"Betting odds are the prices of bets, not their probabilities!"
What happens if you toss a coin?
It has a 50% chance of landing on heads, and a 50% chance of landing on tails.
A fair odd for such an outcome would be 2,00. A bookie wants to earn money, so normally the odds for soccer matches with an expected chance of 50 % are 1,90. This means the bookie has an advantage over the bettor in the long run. Bookies do not only calculate chances, they calculate the market prices of a bet. There is no way but applying maths and statistics to decide whether the price of any bet offered is fair. Gut feeling is misleading and may prove fatal. Probabilities are a subject too complex to succeed with guesswork, feeling and intuition alone.
Often the odds on favorites are way to low, because of the fact the mass of bettors bets on these favorites and the bookis react on these decisions with lower odds. No team is able to win every single match, so in the long run the losses will exceed your wins because of the low odds for the favorite team.
Value bets try to take advantage of situations where the odds/market price do not match the probability of an event occurring.
An example of why value is so important
Successful gamblers always point to the importance of value in their long-term betting strategies. Going back to our very simple example of a coin toss:
If you had odds of 3,00 on tails and the coin was tossed 200 times, in theory, you should win 100 out of 200 = half of your bets. So if you placed a bet of 1 € on every toss:
200 bets x 1 €= 200 €
100 losses = 0 €
100 wins at 3,00 = 300 €
Over the course of the 200 coin tosses you would have made a profit of 100 € because you placed your bets at value odds. What if you placed your bets on heads at odds of 1,50?
200 bets x 1 € = 200 €
100 losses = 0 €
100 wins at 1,50 = 150 €
You would have lost 50 € because the bookie had an advantage, so the odds did not give you any value.
It's my job to find these value bets for you and for me to beat the bookies. If there is value in each of my bets, we might not win all the time, but you will make a decent long-term profit over time.
How to bet?
My betting advice is very easy to follow. Every bet equals a flat stake of 1 unit and should be between 1-3% your bankroll, depending on your personal budget and goals. I prefer the following bookmakers: Pinnacle Sports, SBO and 18bet .
I am seeking for constant gains with minimum risks to earn a steady monthly income for you and me over a long period of time.
So here we go with my bets for today:
UEFA Champions League / Juventus Turin vs Real Madrid / Juventus 0
UEFA Champions League / Juventus Turin vs Real Madrid / Both teams to score: No
WTA French Open / Carina Witthoeft (GER) - Karolina Pliskova (CZE) / Carina Witthoeft +1,5 sets
USA MLS / Colorado Rapids vs Columbus Crew / Colorado Rapids 0