For anyone who loves betting on or picking NFL games there's 2 trends I've been made aware of the last few years that are pretty reliable from an ATS (against the spread) standpoint.
First spot. Thursday night games where a road team travels 1,500 miles across two times zones from their Sunday game 4 days earlier. Two spots this season.
The reason? Over the last 25 years...
A. Thursday night road teams
B. Coming off a game played the previous Sunday
C. Traveling 1,500 or more miles across two time zones…
are 1-11 straight-up and 1-11 against the spread.
First spot, Week 3, we have the Vikings playing the Bills in Minnesota. Then for their week 4 game Minnesota immediately travels to Los Angeles to take on the Rams in the Thursday night matchup. The Rams are the play in that game.
Second spot, week 10, Green Bay plays Miami at home. Then for week 11 they travel over to Seattle to take on the Seahawks in a Thursday night matchup. The play will be on the Seahawks.
Next trend, teams playing in London, then having a bye week, coming off the bye those teams are 11-1-1 ATS since 2015. The only loser was last years Cleveland Browns who faced the Detroit Lions on the road. They were up by 7 points late in the 3rd quarter before the Lions rallied late and covered the spread, additionally the Browns didn't win a single game last season but if there was a game they should've won, it may have been that one. 6 teams will fit into this model this upcoming season. In week 6 Seattle plays Oakland in London, both teams are on bye weeks the week after. Oakland hosts the Colts in week 8; while the Seahawks play at Detroit. In week 7, the Rams play the Titans in London, both have week 8 byes. Then for week 9 the Titans play in Dallas for MNF while the Rams play in Seattle. In week 8 the Jaguars play the Eagles in London. Week 9 is their bye week. Then in week 10 Philly hosts Dallas on SNF while the Jaguars play at the Colts.
So to recap.
Week 4 winner: Rams
Week 8 winners: Raiders, Seahawks
Week 9 winners: Titans, Rams
Week 10 winners: Eagles, Jaguars
Week 11: Seattle
Let's see if these trends continue to hold up or if the records are just a fluke.