Thanksgiving Day Takeaways
In the early game, the Vikings solidified themselves as an NFC contender with a 30-23 win over the Lions. Case Keenum – again – had a stellar game, throwing for 282 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs. On the other side, Stafford had his standard up-and-down day, making some great throws while also missing on some big plays. A week after holding the league-leading Rams to 7 points, the Vikes defense went on the road and made enough plays to get out with the win. With the Packers trending downward after Aaron Rodgers’ injury, the Vikings – along with the Philadelphia Eagles – appear to have wrapped up their division with 5 games left in the regular season to play.
The Cowboys and Vikings are headed in opposite directions. After losing their third straight yesterday, Dallas is 5-6 and very much on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs are concerned. They have no shot to catch Philly but the bigger concern is whether they can get any offensive production between now and Zeke Elliott’s return. Dak has been sensational since coming into the league, but there must be some worry amongst the Dallas brain trust that he has been a product of the great Dallas running game and simply isn’t ready to lead an offense on his own. He was a respectable 20-27 yesterday but had 0 TDs / 2 INTs and the Cowboys have scored a combined 22 points over their last 3 games (7.3 pts/game). Meanwhile, the Chargers just inserted themselves back into the AFC West / Wild Card chase with their second straight win (and they get Cleveland next week).
The nightcap was a sad contest between the Redskins and Giants, both underperforming NFC East squads. The Redskins kept their dim playoff hopes alive with a 20-10 victory but didn’t look particularly impressive doing so. Perine stepped up in Chris Thompson’s absence and Crowder hauled in 7 passes for 142 yards. On the positive side, their final 5 games look a lot less daunting today than they did 2 months ago, as they get the Cowboys, Chargers, Cardinals, Broncos, and another game versus the hapless Giants. If they can go 4-1 (doable), they may sneak into the playoffs as a 10-6 wild card.
College Football Rivalry Week
Ohio State (-12) @ Michigan
Even though Michigan is unranked, this is always a marquee game on college football’s last full Saturday slate. Ohio State is very much still in the College Football Playoff mix at 9-2. If the Buckeyes beat Michigan tomorrow and then handle undefeated Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship Game, there’s a good shot they slide into that #4 spot (granting them the privilege to lose to Alabama by 45 points). Ohio State has been a tough team to predict; they’ve won big games (Penn St., Michigan St.) and followed them up with clunkers like their 30+ point loss to Iowa. But it’s still jarring to see Ohio State getting this many points – on the road – against an 8-3 Michigan team. Michigan’s problem is they just can’t score points. Which is, admittedly, a pretty big problem. Since Wilton Speight went down earlier in the season, the offense has been anemic. Coach Harbaugh hasn’t announced a starter but it’ll likely be Brandon Peters (concussion) or John O’Korn (not very good). Either way, they’ll need some home-field bounces/turnovers/big special teams plays to have a shot against their ancient rival.
Alabama (-4.5) @ Auburn
Iron Bowls rarely get bigger than this 2017 version of the rivalry. Alabama is not only undefeated but has rarely been challenged, outside of a tight one against Mississippi State. Auburn is flying high off its win over previously top-ranked Georgia. The Tigers have scored 40+ in 7 of their last 8 games. Alabama, on the other hand, hasn’t given up more than 24 points all season – and has held six opponents to single-digits. We all assume Nick Saban’s defense is the best in the country but we’ll find out a lot more about them on Saturday night.
As far as CFP implications, it’s not exactly an elimination game for Alabama. If Auburn beats Alabama, they go the SEC Championship Game to play Georgia. But a one-loss Alabama team – even one that doesn’t win the SEC West – is likely to get into the playoff over a one-loss ACC champion (Miami, Clemson), a 2-loss Big 10 champion (Ohio State) or a 2-loss Big 12 champion (TCU, Oklahoma). If Auburn gets its second loss and doesn’t get a crack at the SEC Championship, they’re playoff hopes are pretty much toast.
Wisconsin (-17) @ Minnesota
What is the playoff committee going to do about Wisconsin? The Badgers are the team most likely to throw the playoff into chaos. They play in a power-5 conference and are undefeated – which should get them an automatic berth if they win out. But due to Big 10 scheduling quirks, they’ve played the easiest Power-5 schedule imaginable. This year, they missed out on Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan State and in the non-conference they played three home games against Utah State, Florida Atlantic, and BYU. Wisconsin just hasn’t played anybody and the committee is going to think long and hard about putting them in over, for example, a 1-loss Alabama team that easily coasted through a tougher SEC schedule.
Minnesota is the last team that can put a dent in Wisconsin’s perfect record until the Buckeyes in the Big 10 Title Game. First-year coach P.J. Fleck has the Gophers at 5-6 and looking for a signature win / bowl eligibility. Two weeks ago they clobbered Nebraska but came down to earth last week as they were routed 39-0 by Northwestern. Wisconsin should win this one easily but better make sure they aren’t looking ahead to next week’s monumental showdown with THE Ohio State.
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