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We’ve seen the Playoff Committee’s second weekly rankings and the real playoff contenders are starting to come into focus. Still a long way to go, but at this point the SEC has a good shot at getting two teams in, the Big Ten’s hopes are pinned on Wisconsin, and the Pac-12 looks like it’ll get left out in the cold. The Week 11 marquee matchups will go a long way towards determining the ultimate playoff field.
Miami (+3.5) v. Notre Dame
Catholics v. Convicts. The now-famous turnover chain. This is a classic matchup of two programs that have been down but are now resurgent. Miami is one of only 3 undefeated teams from a Power-5 conference (along with Wisconsin and Alabama). They haven’t always looked dominant, with several close wins early in the season, but undefeated is undefeated. Mark Richt has the defense humming and they’re making enough plays in the passing game – led by wideout Braxton Berrios – to pull out these wins. Notre Dame, on the other hand, has one loss (to Georgia) but have been absolutely rolling of late – highlighted by a thrashing of USC two weeks ago. Josh Adams is an absolute terror on the ground and Brian Kelly has recruited a lot of NFL talent on the offensive line. The game is in Miami and will serve as a de facto elimination game – if Notre Dame loses they have 2 losses and Miami needs to stay perfect given their SOS and close margins of victory.
Ohio State (-17.5) v. Michigan State
Poor Big Ten. Coming into the season, they appeared to have three legitimate playoff contenders in Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan. Michigan has struggled all year after Wilton Speight’s injury and Ohio State and Penn State imploded last week, destroying their playoff ambitions. Ohio State got saddled with a second loss after getting blown out by Iowa. Penn State lost a second-straight heartbreaker to Michigan State which effectively ended their playoff hopes as well. Undefeated Wisconsin – and their soft schedule – is the conference’s last best chance to sneak into the tournament.
Even though Ohio State has two losses, this is still a huge game in the division. If Michigan State wins, they’re in the driver’s seat and have a great chance to get to the Big Ten Championship Game against Wisconsin. The line is a bit surprising. Ohio State lost by over 30 points to Iowa last week, Michigan St. picked up a huge win over Penn St., and the Buckeyes are STILL laying 17.5 points. Michigan State always plays better with a chip on their shoulder so this should be an interesting game against an Ohio State team that, all of a sudden, has a lot less to play for.
Auburn (+2.5) vs. Georgia
This is the biggest hurdle for Georgia before a SEC Championship Game showdown against Alabama. If they can get through Auburn unscathed, there’s a good chance (absent a blowout) that they waltz into Atlanta knowing they’re in the Playoff, win or lose. Auburn, on the other hand, is looking for a marquee win this season under Coach Malzahn. Georgia’s defense has been lights-out all season and this game will boil down to whether Malzahn, the offensive guru, can scheme his way to some big plays and touchdowns – forcing Georgia’s offense to win the game for them.