NFL Survivor pools kick off tonight. All you have to do is pick one winner a week, no spread, just straight up winner. Easy. Except for the caveat, you can not pick the same team twice. Each week I will break down the top picks for that weekend.
Kansas City at New England
New England is currently a 9 point favorite, and a -405 favorite at Nitrogen Sports. WIth Kansas City a +345 underdog, this means the book is saying New England has a 78.1% chance of winning the game. This is called the no vig line. It is the odds of winning after taking out the books vig. A chart is included at the bottom of the page showing all matchups this weekend and the chance of winning based off the games money line.
New England and the Steelers share the top spot this weekend. This will undoubtedly be a popular pick, with the only exception being if your pool allows picks up until Sunday. In which case it may be worth your while to take the Patriots alot of people will procrastinate picks or payment to enter, and go with the Steelers come Sunday.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Pittsburgh will be another popular choice this weekend, with a 78.1% chance to win. While it is the Browns, it has two strikes for me.
Strike 1 A road game. While not the end all be all, I would rather take a comparable home game. But is the Browns, but I believe they are improved. Improved enough to beat Pittsburgh, probably not.
Strike 2 A Divisional game. Division rivalries mean more. They play each other twice a year, they know each other better, bringing parity a little closer. But it is the Browns.
While not a bad pick, two strikes, I am out on this one.
New York Jets at Buffalo
By the numbers Buffalo has a 77.3% chance of winning. If you are trying to save the better teams for later in the year, taking the Bills against the Jets week 1 is a good place to look.
Atlanta at Chicago
Atlanta comes in with a 71.6% chance of winning, and they are on the road, definitely strike 1. With it being the first week, I would pay off the Falcons, will be better spots to take them later in the year in my opinion.
No real reason to go outside of these four picks in my opinion. I will be splitting mine between Buffalo and New England.
If none of those fit your fancy, here are all the winning % chances based on moneylines for this weekends games. Good luck with however you go.
| Team | Win % |
|---|---|
| New England | 78.1% |
| Pittsburgh | 78.1% |
| Buffalo | 77.3% |
| Atlanta | 71.6% |
| Houston | 68.1% |
| Carolina | 67.1% |
| Dallas | 64.5% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 63.9% |
| Green Bay | 60.1% |
| Minnesota | 60.1% |
| Denver | 60.0% |
| Cincinnati | 58.7% |
| Tennessee | 57.0% |
| Arizona | 54.3% |
| Philadelphia | 51.8% |