## Week 1 NFL Public Love
I like to look at who the public likes. And it is not to bet with them. The public is not wrong all the time, but knowing who they are on helps to figure out the lines and why they are where they are. The NFL is the sharpest market of all the leagues in my opinion. And the more money flowing into the market, the sharper the market will be.
True Public percentages are hard to come by, sort of like bigfoot. I have developed a formula that takes data from numerous sources and combines it into the best guess. Guessing who the public is actually betting on is a voodoo science. Two parts guess, one part close eyes, and some feel, but there are plenty of sources out there that I take the aggregate of, and seems to give the pulse of the punters out there.
Looking at all the numbers, it looks like the following are the public darlings this week:
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta takes on the pitiful Chicago Bears this weekend. They currently sit at 6 point chalk. 75% of bets appear to be on the Falcons.
Houston Texans
Houston may be dealing with the after effects of the hurricane, but Joe Public thinks they cover against the Jags at a 5 point favorite with about 73% of the bets.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pitt is traveling to hapless Cleveland this weekend. and come in as 8.5 point chalk. Cleveland stinks, and the public loves the Steelers at around 76% so no real surprise here.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams opened at -3 against the Colts and the line is now up to -4. Public is squarely on the Rams thinking the Luckless Colts travelling across country can not get it done. About 73% seem to be on the Rams.
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is getting about 78% of the action against the 49ers at -4.5 favorites. Panthers are trying to rebound from a sub par year last year, and have to start off by travelling 3000 miles.
New Orleans Saints
Last but not least, the Saints are getting about 71% of the action. They are 3.5 point Underdogs, and for the public to be all over a road underdog makes me say what the ....
I rarely ever bet with the Public Darlings, and will not be doing so this week. I use this information to narrow down the field of the NFL wager market. Early leans are Jaguars, Browns, 49ers, and the Vikings. Public underdogs are a rare species, almost on the endangered list. Joe Public likes home favorites, and overs.
Will post any bets I have in morning if Hurricane Irma blesses me with still having power. Still need to go over injuries, running a little behind this week with Hurricane preps. Praying for everyone's safety in her path.
Who do you like or not like this weekend?