If you gamble on sports, then you are always looking to learn something. Always searching for the extra edge against the man. One tool that I like to use is checking who the public is on with the line moving against them. This can be a sign of the "Sharp" money being on the other team. While not the end all be all, I do use it as a gauge.
The problem is in getting an accurate measurement on public betting trends. I monitor thru scripts a few websites that have public betting percentage information. I then average these numbers to come up with a best guess. If the numbers are off by more than 10%, I take it off the radar completely. I never use these numbers to blindly bet, but use it to narrow down a field of of a lot of games to a few to dig into.
Based on the numbers so far, the following games for tomorrows slate stand out to me:
- Hawaii at UCLA
- Game opened with a total of 65. Line has been bet down to 64 with about 85% of bets on the over. There is probably not alot of volume on this game, and definitely not a ton of movement, but is intriguing to me.
- Tulane at Navy
- Total opened at 54.5, and has droppped to 48.5, with a best guess of 80% of bets on the over. Quite alot of movement against the public. Something moved this line. Danger always is has it moved past the point due to steam, or people chasing the "Sharp Money". I highlighted this game and will be watching the total up until kickoff.
- Oklahoma at Ohio State
- Line opened at Ohio State -5.5 and has been bet up to -7.5. This crossed the magic number of 7, all the while with Oklahoma getting 59% of the bets. Now Ohio State does have a huge following, so I would expect to see Ohio State in the lead. Really like Ohio State -7.5 even though I would much rather have less than 7. Only guess is models believe in Ohio State more than the eye test of the first half against Indiana last week.
- Minnesota at Oregon State
- Being PJ Fleck definitely has the public believing as Minnesota is getting about 70% of the bets on a road game. Problem is the money has moved the line from opening Minnesota -1 and has flipped the favorite to Oregon State -2.5. This is my favorite game of the weekend based on this and my model. Put a little bitcoin on this one and here is my proof, My Nitrogen Sports Betslip.
Fade or Follow at your own risk. I do not sell picks. I do not tout. Buying sports selections is a complete waste of money. I share my favorite picks to show that I do bet them. I do not bet big, but I love to gamble and bitch about bad beats.