What is going on with Celtic's backup center position this year? In the beginning of the season, it looked like Aron Baynes was picking up a lot of minutes post Gordon Hayward-injury-- even starting games. In 2018 it's been the Deniel Theis fascination era. But at the trade deadline, Ainge picked up a MASSIVELY underrated Greg Monroe. A case can be made for all THREE of these big men being underrated. So what's Ainge doing with all these guys at the same position?
Let's enter Danny Ainge's melting pot and take a deeper look....
Theis: ## He can dunk with two hands-- in transition. He can dunk the alley-oop. He can defend the paint pretty well, which is prolly why Ainge values him. Overall he's pretty tenacious out there. If you don't look too intensely, he can look a bit like Boston's (Cambridge's) own and beloved Ben Affleck is on the floor denying shots with gusto. Ok, it's only a faint resemblance, but you can bet your ass if the Celtics do ANYTHING interesting with him on the team Affleck will easily sign-up to play him (even tho he'll WANT to be case as Gordon Hayward bc he's a typical Hollywood prima-donna).
Theis plays well with a serial-killer mask on his grape! Gotta count for somfin, no?
He plays unselfishly (passes), sets a good pick, and shoots like a kid out of the movie Hoosiers "Setshot Johnny" style.
Al Horford ##: The Starter
Al doesn't have to sweat his time in Boston at the moment due to a 2020-expiring contract, but Ainge is certainly lining up all these centers who any-one-of-whom could either take Horford's job or lower his contract amount 2 years from now. Al is aging, but he's still close to his prime as an early 30-yr-old. Al's game is perfect for the small-ball NBA, just don't expect too many rebounds. No rebounds from a center?? Yep, Horford is valued bc he's arguably the best 3 point shooting center in the NBA along with Towns (Towns rebounds tho). What Horford lacks in rebounds, he makes up in passing as he's shooting for DOUBLE the amount of assists as Towns. Horford is the posterchild for team play, the guy didn't even complain last year when IT refused to pass to him. Al the gentle giant. God bless this guy. He's a player only Tim Duncan could love-- remember that guy? Yeah, the one with 5 rings to LeBron's 3? (and probably shoulda been 6 to LeBron's 1)
Greg Monroe ## Hark back to days of all, post play, rebounds, shoving people around. Greg Monroe is all that, but most of all he's a heady player who can read the court and be in the right spots on BOTH sides of the court. Frankly, he should work out PERFECTLY in Celtic green, so long as Stevens can rig the 2nd team to account for Monroe's more traditional play. He's not out there shooting threes like Horford, he's inside battling for rebounds where a center oughtta stay focused. To each his own. Boston is doing what Brett Brown SHOULD have done, which is make the 2nd unit a traditional center unit around Okafor or Noel. Hell, maybe with everyone small, the reserves big-boy units might be better than the first units? You Just Never Know.
Aron Baynes
Is anyone going to read an Aron Baynes article? Come'on! We'll skip forward bc we know your time is precious.
Contracts Timeline:
Summer 2018: Aron Baynes, UFA, age 30, last salary $4mm ($6mm previous season with Detroit)
Summer 2018: Greg Monroe Unrestricted FA (UFA), age 26, last salary (Milwauk) $18mm and $5mm for a half season with Boston (Monroe was waived by Suns and bought out, Boston paid for half a season).
Summer 2019: Daniel Theis Restricted Free Agent, age 25, $1mm last salary, qualifying offer = $2mm that offseason
Summer 2020: Al Horford Free Agent, last salary $30mm. He has a player option for the final year which he'll likely take bc he'll be 32 years old (Unless the NBA unviels some new big revenue source by then)
INTERPRETATION: What this all means:
Baynes might already be sorta off the team in spirit by now, replaced by Monroe AND Theis. Baynes is expensive compared to Theis in 2019 who will cost $1mm-- a 75% discount. Baynes had his run, and Ainge is probably done with him as he's a UFA this summer. In the event Ainge is desperate (seems unlikely given the unabating drop in big men values in the NBA last two years) he could still sign Baynes and it would most likely be a contract reduction which is good for Boston who now supports Kyrie, Hayward, & Horford and will be needing to accomodate Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum down the road, not to mention a budding Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier. Some of those assets will be traded before getting expensive, but you get the point: Ainge has an embarrasment of riches, with high draft picks still in the cards in the near future (Thank You dolty Bryan Colangelo!). Our main point on Baynes is that if Ainge loved the guy's play he might not have bumped up the minutes of Theis or signed Monroe.
Theis's cheap contract also serves as a weapon against Greg Monroe's agent, and so does the fact Monroe has been jettisoned elsewhere in the league and can't seem to buy starter's minutes in a traditional-center-hating league. We think Monroe is great value as a STARTER, but the NBA collective disagrees and all want to imitate Golden State "small-ball". New Orleans made an offer for Monroe, but ONLY bc Boogie was out. In Boston Monroe might at LEAST hold down the backup center roll in the playoffs. Monroe has already been paid nicely, so we'd think he's smart enough to look for GAINFUL employment-- and by gainful we mean in the NON-monetary fashion. If Monroe plays well in the 2nd half and earns the backup minutes in the playoffs, Ainge will likely pay him off a bit. Monroe won't cost what Milwaukee paid him, but he'll probably earn $10mm or just north of that in his next contract. He's on the bubble, is what we're saying, and Ainge has correctly put a lot of incentive in front of Monroe to play well, even tho Monroe plays well despite any incentives (in our humble opinion). Nice job by Danny Ainge here.
Obligatory Aron Baynes fair-use photo (& Monroe)...
Daniel Theis is young and cheap and playing well in Boston. That's a nice combo. Unless Boston trades someone or him, or trades for a higher-talent backup center, or trades Horford for higher-talent center, Theis SHOULD be able to play next year in Boston. Obviously if Ainge got a big offer for Theis (we think unlikely in today's smallball universe) he'd be gone in 2 seconds, but for 2019 Theis is too valuably cheap to do anything but put on low-minutes storage. Theis is additionally valuable bc he knows the Brad Stevens' system, and that stuff counts at the margins and makes him slightly more attractive than like players.
That leaves Al Horford. We think Ainge is pretty high on Horford, or he wouldn't have made him such a nice offer of 4 years and $28mm per year a year ago. So Al is in, so long as he performs when the team is healthy. So far so good. Big Al is underrated to say the least, and easily the best member of those strong Hawks teams (sorry Millsap, it's not you buddy!). Ainge correctly assessed THAT situation, just like he correctly assessed the Markelle Fultz situation. (We had Fultz around 7th or 9th if memory serves, but you can look up our draft ranking on Steemit-- one of our earlier posts. So we liked Fultz, but didn't think he was worth a #3 AND a #2 pick combined-- who is!?! Fultz coulda been traded DOWN and still had, if you took OUR advice, or skipped entirely if some team took him in the #1 to #6 slot) So Big Al is going to be paid for this 4 year run at the Finals, unless something REALLY big happens. We're just not sure what that would be, would have to look something like Anthony Davis, Karl Towns, or Joel Embiid and we're just not seeing ANY of that.
So hope you like Big Al as much as Ainge does Boston!
Boston fans can look forward to seeing what value Ainge can generate from the backup center position with all these guys. Ainge has put himself in a position to win with his roster, but expect some changes this offseason, in a "culling of the herd" kinda way.