Hello All and welcome to the BRACKET WATCH's 3rd Edition. Its been another busy week in college basketball, with a lot of moving going on, especially in the mid-seed range. I wrote about the impact of last night's PAC-12 games on the bracket yesterday, and they turned out to have some implications on the projected field. A few "bubbles" have effectively been "popped" and we are getting closer to sorting through all of the murkiness that is the "Bubble" this year. While the PAC-12 is reeling, a few other teams have seen their fortunes change dramatically as well.
In the last BRACKET WATCH, I wrote about the Broncos of Boise State, and while they were barely clinging to the field in the last edition, they have since dropped out. The Broncos didn't suffer a loss, but the problem is their schedule hasn't allowed them to pick up any significant wins. Boise is stilling sitting at just 1-2 against the RPI top 50 and 0-1 against the top 25. Despite the 22-6 overall record, those numbers just aren't strong enough to make a compelling case against the other "bubble" teams. Their best win is a non-conference win over Loyola-Chicago who looks like a strong 11-seed at the moment, but are a mid-major and need to win their Conference Tournament to get in. Other than that, a non-conference victory over Oregon is the only other note on the Broncos' resume and that's just not nearly enough. While the Broncos' Tournament chances aren't completely dead, for the time being, they have fallen off the BRACKET WATCH. Now let's get to it, here is the BRACKET WATCH (3rd Edition):
THE FIELD
# 1 - Seeds:
VIRGINIA (14-1, 25-2)*
VILLANOVA (12-3, 25-3)
XAVIER (13-3, 25-4)*
AUBURN (12-3, 24-4)*
# 2 - Seeds:
KANSAS (11-4, 22-6)*
DUKE (11-4, 23-5)
PURDUE (14-3, 25-5)
MICHIGAN ST. (15-2, 27-3)*
# 3 - Seeds:
NORTH CAROLINA (11-5, 22-7)
CINCINNATI (13-2, 24-4)*
ARIZONA (12-3, 22-6)*
TEXAS TECH (10-5, 22-6)
# 4 - Seeds:
CLEMSON (9-6, 20-7)
RHODE ISLAND (14-1, 22-4)*
GONZAGA (16-1, 26-4)*
WICHITA ST. (12-3, 22-5)
# 5 - Seeds:
OHIO ST. (14-3, 23-7)
TENNESSEE (10-5, 20-7)
NEVADA (13-2, 24-5)*
WEST VIRGINIA (9-6, 20-8)
# 6 - Seeds:
MICHIGAN (12-5, 23-7)
MIAMI (7-7, 18-8)
BUTLER (9-7, 19-10)
KENTUCKY (8-7, 19-9)
# 7 - Seeds:
ARIZONA ST. (7-8, 19-8)
SETON HALL (8-7, 19-9)
SAINT MARY'S (15-2, 26-4)
ALABAMA (8-7, 17-11)
# 8 - Seeds:
MISSOURI (8-7, 18-10)
CREIGHTON (8-7, 19-9)
FLORIDA ST. (8-7, 19-8)
FLORIDA (8-7, 17-11)
# 9 - Seeds:
VIRGINIA TECH (9-6, 20-8)
HOUSTON (11-4, 21-6)
TEXAS A&M (6-9, 17-11)
OKLAHOMA (6-9, 16-11)
# 10 - Seeds:
TCU (7-8, 19-9) #
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (13-1, 21-5)*
ARKANSAS (8-7, 19-9)
PROVIDENCE (8-7, 17-11)
# 11 - Seeds:
NC ST. (9-6, 19-9)
LOYOLA-CHICAGO (14-3, 24-5)*
ST. BONAVENTURE (11-4, 21-6)
LOUISVILLE (8-7, 18-10) / BAYLOR (7-8, 17-11)
# 12 - Seeds:
KANSAS ST. (9-6, 20-8)
NEW MEXICO ST. (9-2, 22-5)*
LOUISIANA (13-1, 23-4)*
TEXAS (6-9, 16-12) / UTAH (10-6, 18-9)
# 13 - Seeds:
BUFFALO (12-3, 20-8)*
VERMONT (12-1, 22-6)*
MURRAY ST. (15-2, 23-5)*
E. TENNESSEE ST. (14-2, 23-6)*
# 14 - Seeds:
MONTANA (13-2, 20-7)*
CHARLESTON (13-3, 22-6)*
NO. KENTUCKY (12-3, 19-8)*
RIDER (14-3, 21-8)*
# 15 - Seeds:
HARVARD (9-1, 14-11)*
FLORIDA GULF COAST (12-2, 21-10)*
BUCKNELL (15-2, 21-9)*
SOUTH DAKOTA ST. (12-1, 24-6)*
# 16 - Seeds:
WAGNER (14-3, 21-7)*
NICHOLS (13-2, 19-9)*
UNC-ASHEVILLE (11-3, 18-9)* / SAVANNAH ST. (10-3, 13-15)*
UC-IRVINE (10-4, 15-15)* # / GRAMBLING (11-3, 15-12)*
THE BUBBLE
FINAL 8 IN:
PROVIDENCE (8-7, 17-11) RPI 35/ 2-5, 5-7/ SOS 18/ 3-6 road
NC ST. (9-6, 19-9) RPI 58/ 4-4, 5-5/ SOS 66/ 4-4 road
ST. BONAVENTURE (11-4, 21-6) RPI 27/ 1-1, 4-2/ SOS 84/ 7-4 road
KANSAS ST. (9-6, 20-8) RPI 57/ 1-4, 3-7/ SOS 97/ 6-3 road
LOUISVILLE (8-7, 18-10) RPI 47/ 0-7, 1-10/ SOS 41/ 3-6 road
BAYLOR (7-8, 17-11) RPI 49/ 2-5, 3-8/ SOS 24/ 2-7 road #
TEXAS (6-9, 16-12) RPI 57/ 3-3, 6-7/ SOS 18/ 4-6 road
UTAH (10-6, 18-9) RPI 51/ 1-2, 5-6/ SOS 70/ 5-6 road #
FIRST 8 OUT:
UCLA (10-6, 19-9) RPI 46/ 2-1, 4-4/ SOS 69/ 2-6 road
USC (11-5, 20-9) RPI 43/ 0-2, 1-6/ SOS 58/ 5-5 road
Syracuse (7-8, 18-10) RPI 38/ 0-4, 3-6/ SOS 28/ 4-4 road
Nebraska (12-5, 21-9) RPI 53/ 0-5, 1-5/ SOS 117/ 4-7 road
WKU (13-2, 21-7) RPI 63/ 1-1, 1-2/ SOS 103/ 7-3 road
MISSISSIPPI ST. (8-7, 20-8) RPI 65/ 2-4, 4-6/ SOS 109/ 2-6 road
PENN ST. (9-8, 19-11) RPI 77/ 2-3, 2-4/ SOS 103/ 4-6 road
MARQUETTE (7-8, 16-11) RPI 66/ 2-6, 4-9/ SOS 19/ 4-4 road
ELIMINATED
BOISE ST.
WASHINGTON
TEMPLE
The "bubble" has burst for a few teams. Washington's blowout loss @ Stanford last night has eliminated the Huskies, that is 4 bad losses in conference play alone and a season sweep at the hands of both Utah and Stanford. With fellow PAC-12 bubble foes Utah, UCLA, and USC now ahead of the Huskies, they are going to have to do serious damage in the PAC-12 Tournament to get back in the mix.
It's just too many losses for Temple. There's nothing to gain for the Owls in their last 3 games, although all are tricky (vs UCF, @ UCONN, @ Tulsa). At just 15-12 overall and 7-8 in the American, its not going to be enough. They need another crack at Cincinnati or Wichita St., and even if they were to defeat one in the American Tournament, it still probably won't be enough to convince the Committee.
As previously mentioned with the Broncos, Boise State just doesn't have enough quality wins on their resume. Two tough games remain in the Mountain West (@ SDSU; vs Wyoming), but neither will give them a significant boost to their resume. A loss in either game would put the last nail in the coffin. A couple of wins to close out the season and a victory over Nevada in the Mountain West Conference Tournament, coupled with some other misfortune for fellow "bubble" foes and Boise could sneak back into the conversation.
Lastly, while both Texas A&M and Oklahoma currently sit on the 9-line, both are in danger. Both are 6-9 in their respective conferences with difficult games remaining. Oklahoma has a plethora of high-caliber wins, but have now lost 6 straight. If Oklahoma were to lose 2 of their remaining 3 and finish up just 7-11 in Conference play and 17-13 overall, the Committee would almost certainly have to leave the Sooners out of the field. Meanwhile, A&M cannot afford to lose to Vanderbilt on the road, and will have a stiff test @ Georgia before finishing up at home against Alabama. A 1-2 finish would put A&M at 7-11 in Conference play as well, and almost force the Committee into leaving them out.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments section as we get ready for another huge weekend of college bball!