This MLB off season has been notably quiet compared to almost any other. Formerly called the Hot Stove season, this years stove has been basically turned off as a quick look at the available free agents on MLB.com will show you. There are many many articles devoted to explaining why there has been little movement so far; reasons that include cautious GM's, team spending limits, and teams not wanting to bid against themselves. However, I would like to look more specifically at the Red Sox here.
When it comes to the Red Sox the elephant in the story line is that everyone has decided that the Sox have to hit more home runs. Now to be sure, home runs would help. And home runs are fun, but not always necessary to win games. The Red Sox managed to win ninety three games last season, despite being one of the last teams in hitting homers. However, there are reasons to expect higher homer totals than last season, especially since many players regressed last year and should be due for a collective bounce back. According to Fangraphs, a baseball stat site, the list of current Red Sox players projected to hit more homers than in 2017 actually includes, well, everyone except for Andrew Benintendi, which I think is odd since I expect more than 20 out of him next year.
I don't want to post everyone's projected stats from Fangraphs, but sufficient to say, there should be more home runs waiting in 2018. It is natural to want to react to a need for something by going out and throwing money at the nearest solution, especially if you are the Red Sox with deep pockets, but that is not always wise. Look no farther than Prince Fielder's contract for 9 years and 200 plus million in 2012. Two years after signing, he was in Texas where he would massively under perform, and in 5 years was forced to retire from baseball all together. Fielder was signed in haste in response to a knee injury that would take out a key player for about 60 games, and gave the Tigers plenty of time to regret the deal once it was done.
A little closer to home, the Red Sox, fresh off of releasing Pablo Sandoval from his disaster of a contract should be cautious. Hanley Ramirez is another player who has not lived up to his money, he is currently owed 22 million and has not come close to earning that money in two of his three season's with the team. Another mammoth deal that currently has not paid for itself is the David Price deal, Price is still owed well over 100 million dollars and has a shaky elbow. Carl Crawford is another recent disaster that comes to mind. All of these, and more, are very good reminders for the Red Sox and their GM to pause and consider if rushing out and paying hundred's of millions of dollars for a player, in this case JD Martinez, is worth it. Martinez had a great year at the plate in 2017. No doubt he would make the Red Sox line up better by protecting hitters around him, but who knows how long he can hit at that level, and who knows if he can handle the pressure of playing in Boston.
David Ortiz is easily the greatest DH ever to play in the Red Sox uniform, and he was never paid more than 16 million in a season. Martinez might be very good, but he is only a bat as he cost 27 runs on defense last year. Given this weakness, Martinez solely profiles as a DH in the American league, which would also help keep him healthy and prolong his value. However, he is not worth the 200 plus million his agent is supposedly seeking, and so far, no team has been willing to agree to the amount or length of contract that Martinez is looking for. Since this is the case, the Red Sox have no reason to run out and over pay.
As the off season draws to a close, the remaining players will begin to feel the pressure to finish deals and lock down roster spots. Hopefully this will help the two parties come to a mutual agreement that is both fair and balanced. If not, there are other power threats still available in Jay Bruce, Logan Morrison, Mike Moustakas, and even Todd Frazier. Until another team makes a worrisome offer to one of the coveted sluggers, there is no need for the Sox to compete with themselves. Dave Dombrowski has given contracts in haste and repented form them in leisure before, here is hoping that he's learned a bit of a lesson.
Photo credit: https://wallpaper.wiki/boston-red-sox-backgrounds-free-download.html
Stats taken from http://www.fangraphs.com/