October 23, 2018 - by Brendon Fitzsimons - Leave a Comment
With the addition of another superstar it seems that no team can catch the Warriors. Is that good for the NBA?
March 10th, 1997. That’s when Jack McCallum’s article titled Are the Bulls So Good They’re Bad for the NBA? ran in Sports Illustrated.
The basis was simple; the Bulls had won the Championship four times already and Michael Jordan was in his second season back from his baseball phase. They were 50–7 at the time of this article, and the next best team (the Detroit Pistons) were seven games back.
His question was this: was there any reason the engravers should not have gotten started on the championship trophy right then?
He was right of course as the 1996–1997 Bulls cruised through the Playoffs before beating the Utah Jazz 4–2 to capture their fifth championship in seven years. Michael Jordan was named Finals MVP, the roster all but returned for the next season, and the world kept on spinning.
21 years after Jordan’s Bulls, and we are faced with a new twist on an old question; are the Warriors So Good They’re Bad for the NBA?
Unrivaled
Two MVP winners, three championships, four consecutive trips to the NBA Finals, and a starting lineup composed of five certified All-Stars. That’s what the Warriors are bringing into this season.
Is there any reason the engravers should not get started on the championship trophy right now?
In their three championship seasons, they have lost a total of three games in the Finals, and set a mark of 16-1 in the 2016-2017 season throughout the Playoffs. Last year’s Warriors offered us the intrigue of whether the Houston Rockets had figured them out, and whether they would repeat or not.
Last year’s questions were answered, but the addition of DeMarcus Cousins brings with it a new set of questions. Questions that may make this season’s end result feel just slightly less guaranteed.
Fans want to know if the Rockets and newly acquired Carmelo Anthony, alongside James Harden and Chris Paul can pick up where they left off last year. They want to know if a healthy Celtic’s roster of Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward and Jayson Tatum can pose a legitimate threat to GoldenState’s reign. Non-fans hope that Cousins will destroy the locker room with his antics, and they hope that somebody, somewhere can figure out how to slow Kevin Durant down.
These questions are identical to those asked of the 1996 Bulls. Fans wanted to know if Jordan had deteriorated (he hadn’t), they wanted to see if Rodman would disrupt the team with his antics (he didn’t), and they hoped that teams like the Supersonics with Gary Payton, Shawn Kemp and Detlef Schrempf or the Magic with Shaquille O’Neal, Penny Hardaway and Horace Grant, could pose a legitimate threat (they couldn’t).
Now, am I going to sit here and try and compare the Bulls to the Warriors? No. That’s a fool’s task. I will however breakdown the Warriors dominance and how it parallels the Bulls and it’s lasting impact on the NBA.
Ready to Take Over
The famous words spoken by Doug Collins when he was the coach of the Bad Boy Pistons. His full quote read,
“When the Bulls are ready to hang it up we just want to be ready to take over for them.”
Would Collins have been comfortable saying that the Bulls were lightyears ahead of the next best team? Doubtful. The gap between the Bulls and the next best team was astonishing. The Warriors are no different. When talking about defending Kevin Durant, Gregg Popovich said,
“We’ll have Danny Green grow 4-5 inches by Monday night, tell him to jump higher and move quicker. And we’ll tell Kevin ‘don’t be so good’.”
Minnesota’s Tom Thibodeau had this to say about DeMarcus’s move to the Bay,
“Any time a player like that comes to the West, particularly him… you are an instant contender.”
And if that wasn’t enough, here is Commissioner Adam Silver,
“There are changes we can make to the system and I think we will create a more competitive balance and more equality of opportunity. And the discussion in the room, people weren’t coming in necessarily complaining, but I think as good businesspeople do, they are looking out to the future and saying how can we improve things.”
Silver did go on to say that “I don’t think it is necessarily bad per se that the Warriors are so dominant,” but is that really true? Much like the Bulls, the Warriors have a massive gap between them and the next-best team — a gap that is becoming increasingly difficult to scale.
McCallum pointed out that even when the Boston Celtics were ruling the league in the 1950s and 1960s (11 championships in 13 seasons) there was competition at every turn.
“There was always a threat in the shadows — Bob Pettit’s St. Louis Hawks or Wilt Chamberlain’s Philadelphia 76ers. No one’s lurking this year. Chicago isn’t significantly better than it was last season, yet the gap between the Bulls and everyone else seems wider.”
A more modern example wold be the Los Angeles Lakers from 1999- 2002. Three championships in a row, but each year they looked vulnerable. Much like the Bulls, the Lakers had threats lurking; Rasheed Wallace and Jermaine O’Neal‘s Portland Trail Blazers, Chris Webber‘s Sacramento Kings, or Tim Duncan and David Robinson‘s San Antonio Spurs.
Even the Kobe Bryant-led 2009 and 2010 Lakers saw some close competition, be it from Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming‘s Rockets, Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire’s Suns, Carmelo Anthony‘s Nuggets or Boston’s Big Three of Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce.
Who have the Warriors faced that were legitimate threats? In their three championship seasons, they have lost a total of games 11 games in the playoffs. They have recorded five 4-0 sweeps, and have played a series going to seven games only once.
Durant and Westbrook’s Thunder and Paul and Harden’s Rockets were legitimate threats, but was there any serious doubt surrounding the Warriors? No. Same went for Jordan’s Bulls, who lost 13 games in their three straight NBA Finals appearances, recorded three 3-0 sweeps, one 4-0 sweep, and also played only one series that went to seven games.
The Widening Gap
The gap between the Bulls – and now the Warriors – and the next best team is seemingly insurmountable. But it has only increased as time has gone on. For reference, before the Warriors reign started, the last time a team held a 6-game or more advantage over the next best team was LeBron’s Heat back in 2012 when they finished 6 games above the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Jordan’s Bulls were on average 3.3 games better than the next best team during his first three-peat. During his second, the team was, on average, 4.3 games better than their next best team.
The Warriors, on the other hand have on average been 6.3 games better than the next best team through the 2017-2018 season. If we include last season – in which they finished seven games behind Houston – then that number drops to an average of three games better than the next-best team.
The Margin of Victory
If McCallum thought the gap was wide for Jordan’s Bulls, what do you think he would say about today’s Warriors? What do you think he would say if he saw the average margin of victory for the Warriors?
Of the past five dynasties, the margin of victory simply becomes another feather in the Warriors’ cap. Their average margin of victory of 9.23 points per game is only second to the Bulls’ 10.05. The list below outlines the highest margin of victories of recent dynasties.
1995-1998 Bulls: MOV of 10.05 points per game
2014-2018 Warriors: MOV of 9.23 points per game
1990-1993 Bulls: MOV of 8.61 points per game
2011-2013 Heat: MOV of 6.92 points per game
1999-2002 Lakers: MOV of 6.35 points per game
2008-2010 Lakers: MOV of 6.19 points per game
Of all the single-season campaigns, the highest differential came in the 1996-1997 season (surprised?) at 12.24 points per game. The next largest differential? You guessed it, the Warriors’ 2016-2017 campaign at 11.63 points per game.
The NBA’s Caravan
If the Bulls were the NBA’s caravan, then the Warriors are the convoy. McCallum envisioned another franchise emerging after the Bulls disbanded, and the Warriors are it. He made a note though, saying that,
“No single team could lead the NBA caravan as spectacularly as the Bulls and Jordan [had].”
As we go through season after season watching the Warriors play, it’s hard to agree with that. They play with a rhythm best described as contagious, and a captain who plays with a joyous passion that hasn’t been seen since, well, maybe ever in the league.
The Warriors took the league by storm in their first championship run, and their second was highlighted by the arrival of Kevin Durant. The Bulls led the caravan because of their personnel and the league-wide impact they had. The Warriors are no different.
When Durant joined the Warriors at the conclusion of the 2016 season it sparked a trend among the league’s elite players. Loyalty became a secondary concern for many stars, as rings and legacy were pushed to the forefront. Superteams increasingly became the trend that teams wanted to follow.
Following Durant’s arrival to the Bay, more and more players followed his precedent. 76ers guard JJ Redick had this to say about it,
“This is why I love what Kevin Durant did in going to Golden State. You should look at your career as sort of squeezing out every ounce of money, joy, winning, team – whatever it is you prioritize… There is so much you can’t control. When you have an opportunity to do what you actually want to do, you have to take it.”
Whether it was LeBron going to Los Angeles, Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward going to Boston, Dwyane Wade going to Chicago and then Cleveland, Carmelo going to Houston, or Jimmy Butler‘s eventual departure from Minnesota, players are doing what’s best for them. I can’ think of a better of an example of a team leading a caravan then that.
The Imitation Game
The saying goes that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, and if that’s the case then the Warriors must be blushing. Every team wants to copy the Warriors, and their success has led them to become the case study for teams looking to revamp. The same couldn’t be said about the Bulls.
We all know that Houston was the closest last season to replicating the success of Golden State’s death lineup, but with the addition of Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, Toronto will be the next team to try their hand with small-ball lineups.
The Lakers have their own version of the Death Lineup too, consisting of Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma and LeBron playing the five. In fact, LeBron spoke two weeks ago about it, saying,
“Well we want to be a positionless team, there’s gonna be times when we’re all playing different positions. I think that’s gonna be the benefit of our ball club. You know, Kuz (Kyle Kuzma) at the five, the four, the three, BI (Brandon Ingram) at the one, two, three, four, five, myself at the one, two, three, four, five sometimes. You know we have a lot of guys that can play a lot of different positions and Beast can play the two, three, four, five. We have a lot of guys that can play multiple positions for our team so… it’s good.”
The 76ers and the Wizards have options as well. Philly can start a lineup of Markelle Fultz, JJ Redick, Wilson Chandler, Robert Covington and Ben Simmons. Washington can trot out John Wall, Bradley Beal, Kelly Oubre Jr., Otto Porter Jr., and Markieff Morris.
Today’s NBA is based on following the leader, and the Warriors are the leader. The Bulls were the leaders back then too, but teams were too afraid to follow them. Chicago’s triangle offense was sacred, some teams tried to copy it – the Dallas Mavericks being the main culprit – but they ultimately failed. The triangle was not for the organizationally immature, so try as they might, it was not adopted by any other teams. Not because teams didn’t want to, but because they couldn’t.
The Bulls Model
When the 1996–1997 season ended, the Bulls had held onto 11 of the 12 players from the previous season’s roster. This consistency was what led to their success.
The Warriors followed that model, returning 12 of 15 players from the 2016-2017 season to the next, and have 10 players from last season’s roster returning this season.
If consistency is the model, then spontaneity is the anti-thesis. McCallum said that,
“All over the league young, unprepared players are handed the ball and, with it, the hopes of a franchise. Here it is son. Now go sell us some tickets!”
The Warriors did not buck this trend when they thrust Steph Curry into the spotlight upon drafting him. Curry however joined a cast of veterans including Monta Ellis, Corey Maggette, Vladimir Radmanovic and CJ Watson. He weathered coaching changes, position changes and a team re-branding all whilst never being the face of the franchise.
The problem now — as it was then — is exactly what McCallum said,
“Too many franchises are paying too much money to young players who have neither the maturity nor the supporting cast to succeed. But coaches can’t take the time to sit and school the youngsters because ownership is impatient. Other franchises are going after quick-fix free agents and breaking up whatever chance a coach has of building cohesion.”
Cohesion, continuity and – in the case of Curry – mentorship are the keys to success, and the Warriors have shown adequacy in all three. Good for them right? Right. Good for the league? Not so much. The Bulls displayed all three of these as well, but the rest of the league certainly didn’t like it. Danny Ainge was in that camp, saying that,
“It’ll be better when the Bulls break up. More teams will feel they have a chance to win it all.”
This is exactly what we are thinking about this season. It seems a foregone conclusion that the NBA Finals will include the Warriors. It is so certain that the odds for the Warriors to win the Western Conference sits at -245 with an average win total of 58.4.
We know that when the Warriors disband, it will signify a lot more than the end of a dynasty. It will signify the opportunity for teams to compete again.
McCallum said that if there was another dynasty, they wouldn’t be enough to do what the Bulls did. He was wrong. The Bulls were predicted to win again, and so too are the Warriors. They have come as close as we’ve seen at mirroring what the Bulls delivered on a nightly basis, and while the end result of this season has never been more predictable, we know that there will be plenty of drama surrounding it.
Stats courtesy of basketball-reference.com and ESPN.com
Header Image courtesy of Ezra Shaw/Getty Images North America
Body Image courtesy of Sports Illustrated