Yesterday my final pick left in the Montreal ATP at previous odds of 51.00 to win the tournament outright almost swept past Nadal having dominated and won the first set 6-2. In that set he was leagues above Nadal as the Italian's style is to hit winners with ease when he's in the zone and there's nothing Nadal or pretty much any other opponent can do if he's bringing his true A game.
Unfortunately for him he couldn't keep up the magic in the second and third sets where he collapsed on serve on numerous occasions. Fognini's style is high stakes and when it connects it pays off big time. But playing such high stakes tennis over three sets vs players like Nadal is very hit and miss. The world number 11 has one of the best fore and backhands in the game when he's striking the ball at his full potential but that is somewhat negated by his ability to keep focus during a tough match.
Still I honestly felt he had a big chance yesterday to notch a second win of the year vs Nadal and after the first set so did everyone in the Montreal crowd. In the second set Fognini allowed Nadal to gain confidence by taking his foot off the gas and loosing his focus and conviction behind his shots. Once Nadal got a foothold in the second with an early break it gave him a spring board to grow in stature and start to dominate from the back landing balls deeper and asking more questions of Fognini's ability to stay in longer rallies.
Fognini rarely broke a sweat throughout the whole match such is his aggressive style of play. Together they produced the best tennis we have seen so far this year in Montreal:
Even in the second set with a break down Fognini still managed to entertain the crowd and show he was in the set for long periods of the earlier exchanges. Ironically Fognini is probably better suited to playing Nadal on clay because he has more time to weigh up and his own aggressive shot making. Not being much of a mover on court, when he's playing on hard courts the ball is moving much faster and he has to adjust accordingly.
Still even with the Italian gone from the tournament we still have several players left that can trouble Nadal. Most notably are the two Russians due to play the first Semi Final today. Medvedev and Khachanov with square off for the third time in three years with both players taking one of the previous exchanges. I would like to see Khachanov through to the final because I believe he will pose Nadal the greatest threat of the two.
While Medvedev has an admirably resilient game for someone 6ft 6inches tall he isn't going to out rally Nadal on many occasions. On the other hand while Khachanov can rally he prefers to finish points off more quickly and is a player in a similar cut to Fognini hitting the ball with great power and purpose. Preferring to hit winners than stay in a rally for a long time Khachanov as he proved last year when he beat Djokovic in the final of the Paris Masters can demolish the best of players with his raw power yet he has better defensive qualities than Fognini when it comes to hanging in tough points.
Khachanov is 2.50 to win over Medvedev tomorrow. That's my next tennis prediction on Sportstalk.