NCAA College Basketball - North Carolina UNC - Virginia - ACC
Punters and fan alike have been let down by UNC this year. They're certainly the worst looking top 10 ranked team out there right now, and I honestly cannot believe they’re #7 after the chump performance they put in against Ohio State earlier in the week, a letdown for the entire ACC conference in my opinion.
So what’s happening in Chapel Hill right now that has the Tarheels so flummoxed? Coach Roy Williams answered that very question in today’s presser heading into the weekend where they will travel to Virginia (#5). In short, he said they are simple “not running enough.”
Through his explanation, he demonstrated how physically outrunning your opponent in basketball gives a team an entirely new set of tactical advantages over their opponent that is not present otherwise.
Outrunning your opponent will mean you'll get higher percentage shots, you'll get more rebounds, you'll get more mismatches, you'll score more points, and thus, you'll win the game.
Here’s how it all breaks down.
Getting High Percentage Shots
The obvious advantage of getting down the court faster than your opponent in transition, or even on dead-balls, is the opportunity of easy layups and wide-open shots. If you dedicate more numbers in transition, this means you’ll have the advantage as you come down the court, resulting in high percentage shots.
The more shots your opponent takes that are contested lower% shots, the more chances you’ll have to get the rebound and score a high% shot while not giving the opposition chances to rebound off your missed shots. Over a period of time, the team shooting the higher% will outscore their opponents.
This is evident in years past with UNC because they’d boast a shooting percentage of 60%+. However, last game against Ohio State, UNC shot an embarrassing 27% from the field, this was a result of them not getting up and down the court fast enough.
Getting More Rebounds
Most opponents first tactical adjustment to counter being transitioned against is to dedicate players to defend the open court, meaning a couch may tell a guard or forward to not rebound, and instead, on a missed shot head directly down the other side of the court.
That might help to a degree, but it comes at the cost of offensive rebounds. Less players dedicated to rebounding means less rebounds. Less rebounds means more shot opportunities for your opponent.
By UNC out-running teams in the past, it resulted in them getting more rebounds. More rebounds means more chances at scoring while also starving your oppositions of chances. This works perfectly coupled with getting higher% shots, resulting in a more effective conversion rate of possession to points than your opposition.
Getting Mismatches
Dedicating players to defend against the transition creates other problems for a team. No matter what player(s) a team decides to dedicate to transition defense, their opponent will have the chance to create mismatches as a result.
If a team decides to keep their guards out from under the rim and defend the transition instead, the opponent can send forwards down the court in transition to create mismatches.
Same can be done if a team decides to sacrifice their big men rebounding and instead to defend the open court (a bad idea), a team could easily create numerous advantageous mismatches all over the court.
Any who knows anything about basketball knows the importance of creating mismatches. So many playbooks are centered around creating mismatches, but seldom do teams think about creating mismatches as a result of our-running an opponent.
Quick Math
It becomes a simple math equation now. If a team has more chances, by virtue of out-rebounding their opponent, and if they can convert those possession to points by taking high% shots and creating mismatches, you’ll end the game with more points than your opponent.
I’d go even further and say that if down correctly, this tactical hustle-ball style of play that has defined UNC for decades can be nearly unbeatable. A team would have to somehow figure out a way to regain possession consistently throughout the game, and then, convert those possession into points at a higher% than the opponent. If they are being out-ran, out hustled in the open court, I see no way a team could still win the game.
UNC Woes Could Get Worse
Now to return to coach Ray Williams’ answer to why UNC are playing so poorly right now: they simply aren’t “running enough." All the above mentioned only works if you out-hustle your opponent, and right now, UNC aren’t doing that, and as such, they are floundering.
OSU held them to below 50 points last game. UNC finished that game with a laughable 27% from the field compared to OSU’s 46%. This is because UNC was forced to take contested shots that came after a series of passes, letting the OSU defense get set.
Today they take on fellow ACC rivals University of Virginia. The Cavaliers are coming off an abysmal performance against Purdue where they loss by almost 20 to a non-ranked team.
Neither Virginia or UNC broke 50 points this week, so I’d be scared to death of the Over in tomorrows game. My advice, stay away from betting and just enjoy the big game.
This post was originally published by me on Scorum Sports Media
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