I cap mostly for fun. I currently have a negative ROI with my sports capping.
Max Holloway (2.65) vs Alexander Volkanovski (1.515)
Two of the greatest featherweights go at again for a third time on Saturday. Volkanovski won both prior meetings but some could legitimately argue that Max won the second meeting even if he didn't get the decision as the fight was that close. Not sure if it's my imagine or what but Max doesn't seem to have the super human cardio he used to have as he seems to get tired like normal people in the later rounds even in fights he has dominated like versus Kattar and Rodriguez.
Volkanovski remains undefeated in the UFC and the only fights he has been challenged by has been vs Holloway. Ortega gave him a scare with a near submission but that fight wasn't close aside from that one moment. Volkanovski is the older fighter but he has less fight mileage and appears to have the better endurance in later rounds which is something I thought I would never say about an opponent vs Holloway.
For this fight I'm thinking it'll be a lot like the second fight. Holloway competitive in early rounds but Volkanovski slightly edging ahead as the fight goes on ending in another close decision win for Volkanovski.
My pick is the Alexander Volkanovski moneyline.
Jared Cannonier (4.87) vs Israel Adesanya (1.20)
Cannonier's knockout power is REAL. He was knocking people out at heavyweight so him knocking people out at middleweight isn't a real surprise. Only question for this fight is if Adesanya can avoid the knockout blow as I'm expecting a mostly stand up fight here. That's bad news for Cannonier as I think Adesanya's only weakness is his wrestling. His stand up is as good as it gets.
I'm thinking Adesanya will just pick Cannonier from distance round by round before the inevitable knock out via head kick or punch.
My pick is the Israel Adesanya moneyline.