Can Detroit's new team gel in time to beat a hapless trying-to-lose Atlanta Hawks? We're going off the high-dive again and betting on Blake Griffin to stop playing like a West-coast pansy. He's from OKC, so Detroit should be right at home, and he's been a football SAFETY and tight end so toughness should be ingrained. How long is it going to take for Detroit to live up to their new expectations? We don't know, but we're betting Detroit happens now. Here's why you should consider rooting for the Pistons tonite....
shameless "sex sells" picture which will come into focus later in this article....
#1 6-way tie for LAST PLACE
Atlanta has been trying to lose since the beginning of the season, and yet they can't seem to get'r done. Something about winning spirit in that town or something? At the trade deadline, the Hawks unloaded Luke Babbitt (back) to Miami (Why they love him there, is only for Pat Riley to understand-- FAR above our pay-grade) and backup Marco Belinelli to Philly (who doesn't need him either-- remember when Philly's NBA Chess Grandmaster Bry-Bry Colangeloser traded a #3 pick and a #2 pick for a demure kid who doesn't play bc he forgot how to shoot in the 2nd month of being inside the Philly vortex of rookie death?). So..... Atlanta might've gotten a little bit BETTER, and our embarrasing punt-loss the LAST time these two met was a testament to that, as well as Blake Griffin fitting on this team the way a 2-year old fits into shoes when he ALWAYS reverses the shoe sides right/left. BUT, our point is, Atlanta needs to get serious about losing games if they want to increase their chances at one of the half-dozen superkids in this year's draft. If they finish 7th up from the bottom, GOOD LUCK ATLANTA. So maybe the coach wants to figure out how to allocate minutes to some kids who need experience but aren't going to burn any barns against a team everyone admits should beat them? BC the GM sure isn't trying to lose enough, so maybe Atlanta's coach has better sense? (We trust all players play to win, so in our eyes it's the team's mgt where the burden of tanking falls). Nothing worse than an organization that doesn't know how to tank. Remember when Hinkie traded MCW bc his defense was helping the Sixers win too many games? Hey Atlanta, stop surprise-beating the Pistons!
#2 Detroit at HOME this time
In our last embarrassing defeat at handicapping these two teams, we lost by 3 points which is exactly about how much home-court-advantage (HCA) is worth. If we take those 3 from Atlanta, and give them to Detroit, voila! Detroit wins by 3 instead of the other way around. Did this work when the Bulls player the Bucks twice this season and upset AWAY? Hmmm no, it didn't. But we still have to go with HCA being an advantage, especially since Detroit is 18-12 at Home and Atlanta is a PUTRID 5 & 23 away. Atlanta's road wins are what you'd expect (bad teams) w/ exception of Cleveland and Denver (another game we made a HUGE bet an lost). Denver is coached by a person who allocates minutes and changes lineups like a bona fide wierdo, which we SHOULD have discounted, and the Cleveland game in which D-Wade had recently been allocated to the bench and Derrick Rose and Jae Crowder started! Detroit isn't coached by a jackass, and Detroit also isn't a half a dozen roster changes from their final lineup. As we ALWAYS say, HCA doesn't matter much in spread picks bc it's accounted, but in moneyline games it's still a huge advantage to take the home team.
#3 System advantage vs 8.5 spread
We have Detroit winning by a rather respectable 13 points, so if you think of the moneyline "vyg" or odds as affected by a direction proportional relationship to the spread-line, then if our system is right you're getting a 4.5 point advantage. See below in the "fears" section "C", but this is the opposite to Atlanta's first game of the back-to-back where we had Atlanta as 5 point underdogs but they were GETTING 7.5. So think of our winning punt from last night (albeit small) as not as advantaged as tonite's bet, by 2 extra points. We don't just bet our system advantage tho, which is why this bet will be larger than normal.
#4 Jameer Nelson wins
We suggest you read up on what a great dude Jameer Nelson is. This guy changes locker rooms nearly instantaneously. If there's ever a guy to burn a roster spot, it's him. He plays to win, always, even tho he's getting older and his talents were never superstar quality, and his teams always seem to gell and win. But has he had enough time to sop up the tears of Blake Griffin? We don't know, but we trust Drummond and the sheer talent on Detroit's roster is enough to right the wrong we suffered this last time the two teams met.
We have a love-hate with Bob Ford, but enjoy this little piece regarding Jameer Nelson...
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sixers/sixers-jameer-nelson-j-j-redick-orlando-magic-nba-player-friend-in-return-20170920.html
#5 Perennially UNDER-RATED Pistons
You never saw Detroit as a contender at the beginning of the season, admit it. You STILL don't think they can contend, admit it. But they can, and they likely will if Griffin can come back to his old Clippers-upsetting-San-Antonio form. Know why they are underrated? Guys like Tolliver, Ennis, and Bullock are glue-guys, the kind of players Detroit loves.
Detroit is a city that upsets the applecart with low-key 'superstar-less' teams-- and a lot of defense (maybe the Detroit Lions should write this sh!t down?). We don't care if Detroit wins championships, we only care that the mass betting public thinks they can't win. This gives us a few free points here and there, and we hope to convert that ever-skepticism into some free money tonite.
FEAR FACTORS:
A. Blake Griffin is playing like ass
This has been true all season, but now that he's on unfamiliar territory for the first time in a looooong while, he's maybe sulking? crying himself to sleep at night? We don't rightly know, but this Detroit team could really go places if he pulled his head out of his musclely ass. If Griffin focuses on defense and lets his natural abilities shine on offense, this game WOULD be a layup. Is he washed up, and Detroit's GM got suckered on a lemon? This game might be the deciding factor, as he's had some warmup games to right his ship. Maybe it all has to do with Kardashian-Distraction?
B. Too much change too fast
It wasn't that long ago Tobias Harris was Detroit's #1 offensive weapon, and Avery Bradley their #1 defensive weapon. Wow, only guy sticking around is Andre Drummond, who's having a killer season despite all the change around him.
Drummond is MORE than doing his job, so it's upto newcomers Ennis, Griffin, and former/sometimes bench players Ish Smith, Luke Kennard, Tolliver and Bullock(s) to prove everyone wrong about the 2018 Detroit Pistons. Plus, seriously, is gelling really required to beat Atlanta??
C. Our big-bet record is atrocious
Seriously, we should really consider making all bets the same size at this point, but we continue to believe in our system so will stay the course. This might hurt us a lot, but just bc WE bet a ton on this game, doesn't mean YOU have to bet a ton on this game. With this game, we hope to right the big-bet ship. We admit Blake Griffin's awful play makes us VERY nervous and we'll be watching every second of this game for clues why we might be wrong yet again. We've ESPECIALLY been awful about our Atlanta calls, altho last night we won a small (unpublished) bet on Atlanta +7.5 (we had them at +5 and were spot on). Wait, you won betting ON Atlanta last night, WTH? Our margin for THIS game is a whopping THIRTEEN POINTS. The spread is 8.5, so this game is the OPPOSITE of last night's game where we'd be advantaged on the spread bet by 4.5 points (vs last night you'd have been DIS-advantaged on the vyg by a proportional 2.5 points).
SITUATION people.
D. Blake Griffin gave up a total POA, and is ensconced in the wackaloid Jenner/Kardashian family
Come'on dude, maybe you should talk to Harden on dating prima-donnas? Plus, Brynn Cameron dude? WOW. She's practically perfection in a woman, wanna watch SportsCenter?
Headline only...
http://www.sheknows.com/entertainment/articles/1128498/james-harden-reportedly-thinks-dating-khloe-kardashian-is-career-suicide
BET: We are doing 7.0% bet on this one, would be higher be we no longer trust Blake Griffin. Coach, if he plays like ass again, take him out, you don't need him to win. Seriously, Van Gundy, we know YOU love winning above all else: reduce his minutes if he turns the ball over stupidly or misses most of his shots in the 1st half, you'll STILL win.
As always, Enjoy the Game Steemians!!