Tomorrow's Sacramento game is an EZ win for OKC if they actually want it, and they should. Sacramento is almost making no bones about tanking the rest of this season, and OKC isn't that far from the #8 seed when it comes right down to it. OKC should be HIGHLY incentivized to win this game, if only for fears of ending up like Denver last year (odd man out). Here's our pros and cons for participating in this game:
#1 OKC needs wins to finish out the season, particularly bc they got off to a slow start at the beginning of the season, and they also need to integrate Abrines and Huestis into their larger roles due to the Roberson injury.
#2 OKC is just a LOT LOT better, and we're recommending the moneyline.
predicted outcome = 11 points
Line = 7.5 points as we write
So we think we're getting 3.5 points of advantage hear, on just the spread (and have made a small bet on OKC -7.5 too), but we're taking the moneyline for added safety.
Did we mention OKC has the strongest man in the NBA on their side?
#3 Winning Time
George Melo and Westbrook are a rather ideal winning time lineup, so almost ANY 4th quarter deficit can be overcome, should one even occur. This game SHOULD be a 50 point blowout going INTO the 4th. Who's SAC got to carry the winning-time team in Q4? We like a lot of SAC players individually, but we've seen what happens to young tanking teams down the stretch. The games are over, it's time to lose, for Sacramento draft rights. Picking anything below 8th this year will be a disaster.
#4 Injuries, after Roberson, should be a plus for OKC not Sacramento...
Skal Labia: COULD be back. Biggest factor bc if Koufos plays, it's maybe the biggest plus Sac has.
UPDATE: Skal and Mason are probable, so we like our chances the less time Koufos is on the court!
Frank Mason: COULD be back.
De'Aaron Fox: SHOULD be back.
Iman Shumpert: COULD be back.
Irony is, if these guys are playing, it's better for our case against Sacramento.
Roberson being out for rest of season is a definite negative.
Abrines MIGHT be out. This really isn't all that harmful given anyone will have a tough time filling Roberson's shoes.
#5 Organization
Sacramento has been a pretty bad organization; whereas OKC has been the opposite. This might be a small factor in a single game, but organizations have a tendency to affect EVERY game somehow, just look at the post Tim Duncan missing-Kawhi Spurs.
Why we might be wrong...
A. Roberson was a key piece, his injury COULD put a damper on OKC's pre-season mindset they are a team built on legitimate contention for the West. Roberson IS a missing piece, but come on! First of all, Melo and George and Westbrook aren't going collapse their playoff goals over Roberson, this isn't LeBron that's down, or Westbrook. Second of all, if anything the loss of Roberson would motivate them to play harder as they really could tumble in the rankings if they don't at LEAST beat the cruddy tanky teams like Sacramento. bottom line: Roberson being out is ALWAYS a problem bc he covers other team's best scorer.
B. Away game
Any moneyline bet away is at risk in the NBA, but this one happens to be after the all-star break-- everyone is well rested by tomorrow, but especially a player like Westbrook. Away has been PARTICULARLY harrowing for OKC as their away record is not good--> 13-16 (The clippers are .500 away). HOWEVER, the Kings are an abominable 8-17 at home-- NBA worst.
As always, best of luck Steemians!