Have you ever played the game Stratego? If so, continue reading, or continue reading for our pick of this week's football playoffs.
BACKGROUNDER:
In old Stratego games, the Field Marshal is ranked #1 and can defeat all takers (numbered 2, Generals, thru 9, Scouts). The Field Marshal is basically invincible on the battlefield.
In the rules of Stratego, EVERYONE can beat the Spy in a battle, except, ironically, under a single specific condition the Field Marshal can ONLY lose to the Spy. If the Field Marshal in Stratego strikes first, he kills the Spy, but if the Spy strikes the Field Marshal first, the Spy wins! It's hard to even keep the Spy alive, bc he's so worthless except for one single purpose in life: TO TERRORIZE THE FIELD MARSHAL. Ok, so what? How does all this relate to NFL football?
Now that you have the background:
Our story begins with the most storied, most successful coach in modern football history: Bill Belichick
Bill Belichick is the Field Marshal of the NFL's Super Bowl: He defeats all takers in the big game, no matter the challenger; in fact, the best way known to man to win the Super Bowl, is to not face Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl.
BUT...
...there IS ONE EXCEPTION:
The New York Giants
Or, perhaps, for those fans more in love with quarterbacks:
Eli Manning
Even an 18-0 nearly invincible Field Marshal Bill Belichick cannot take down "the Spy", his personal "white whale", if and only if the "spy" meets the Patsies in the big game. (all other meetings, i have no idea?).
Belichick's Super Bowl record is of course 5-2, with both losses to the Giants & Eli Manning.
This is very much like the Spy in Stratego, no? The Spy is worthless, unless it ATTACKS the Field Marshal (and not the other way around) The conditions required for the Spy to defeat the Field Marshal are almost nil, yet 100% of the time those conditions are met, the Field Marshal goes down like a patsy (pun intended).
So why is this interesting next weekend? After all, next weekend isn't the Super Bowl so anything can happen...
BUT....
What if "The Spy" isn't the NY Giants?
What if the Spy isn't Eli Manning?
What if it isn't just the Super Bowl but ANY playoff game the Field Marshal can lose to the Spy?
What if The Spy was Tom Coughlin?
You see, interim head coach Doug Maronne was hired officially on the same day as Jags signed Tom Coughlin as EVP of Football Operations.
You see, the fucking SPY MAY HAVE BEEN HIRED by the Jags for the very reason which is about to reveal itself next weekend.
The Jacksonville Jaguars don't just have the best defense in the NFL this year, they might also have the important-never except "break glass when playing Bill Belichick" SPY!!
**************************************now for the serious part of our show*****************************************
why to bet on Jags +10:
#1 Defense Wins Championships
Not sure this maxim is true anymore, but assuming it still holds weight in the fact that the best defense in the NFL has the best odds of winning the Super Bowl, the Jags are it, and the Pats are the WORST defense in the NFL. Pats defense is ok against the pass, but pathetic against the run. The Jags offense can run.
#2 The Spy is Tom Coughlin
Normally we put a LOT of weight on NFL coaches in the big games. So how can one bet against the most successful coach in NFL history? Two words: Tom Coughlin. He's always had Belichick's number, he's the ONLY guy who's had Bill's number. See above.
#3 Money Money Money, MAHHHHHH NEE
No better way for sportsbooks and bookies across the world to make money than for NE to be defeated outright by the Jags. It's hard to remember back that far, but the Pats also went 9 straight years under Belichick without a Super Bowl win. At this point, NE seems invincible, even when you have them down 3 scores they seem to emerge from the grave and win. New England has a LOT more people in it than Jacksonville, and NE bandwagoners are numerous. There's going to be LOTS of money on this game, all toward NE to cover or NE to win moneyline. This will make the spread quite favorable, as no one believes in the poor Jaguars. No one really likes Defense.
Why we might be wrong:
#1 It's Belichick, the "Field Marshal"
#2 "Here's the Kicker"
NE has the better kicker, and in close games that can become a SERIOUS factor. This is mostly for close games to WIN, not the spread. The kicker won't matter as much if the game is close and you've got the team GETTING 9-10.5 points! Then again, Vinatieri wasn't Vinatieri until he kicked that snowball for the win in Brady/Belichick's first NE playoff, so who knows what's in store for Josh Lambo. Sheeeeeit, what's more popular right now than "Lambos"? So hot right now, Lambos.
#3 Special Situations
NE also has the better special teams advantage.
Best of Luck Steemians!
P.S. We were too ashamed of our football record to post our Eagles +3 pick last week, but that doesn't mean we didn't make 4% AUM betting them. We prefer Eagles +3.5-4.5 again this weekend, but confidence is too low to make the call official.
