-Nothing here is financial advice. I'm a moron.-
Yesterday, Splinterlands Came crashing over the 100k active user finish line by adding a massive 7% to its total active accounts in one day. It went from 99k accounts to 106k.
To put that into perspective, 45 days ago, Splinterlands only had 7k active accounts and yesterday they added that in one day.
And while that is impressive, it's not likely to stop.
If you look back, in the end of July the game was growing at 1-2k accounts per day. By last week that was up to 5000 accounts per day on average and now we're moving toward 7k per day gained per day. What we are seeing is the same network effect that brought Facebook, Amazon, and the iPhone to mass adoption. There is a parabolic curve starting that is probably going to bring this game to millions of active accounts before we know it.
But that got me thinking. What does that mean for the actual game itself? If we ignore the future with millions accounts and we just look at what has already happened, how does that change the game and the games economy?
Well, to answer that, I want to come up with a single card that we all know and love.
The Furious Chicken.
Now I have no stats to back this up but I'd have to imagine that if you caculated the most used card in the game, Furious Chicken would be in the top 5 if not #1.
Here's what you may not realize though: Furious Chicken has a secret.
And I know it's a secret because when I go look, I see that there are 1155 chickens for sale right now and many of them are for $34.
Has it smacked you in the face yet? It took me several times of seeing it before I realized the significance.
The economics of chickens has changed.
In July when there were 5000 active accounts in the whole game, there were 5 Chickens for every account. There were so many chickens that no one cared. But now there are 106k active accounts. Just one month later and there suddenly aren't enough chickens to go around. And not only that but theres only one chicken for every 4 accounts.
It went from 5:1 chickens to accounts to 1:4 in a month. And guess what? They aren't evenly distributed.
I have 50+ chickens and a couple of gold foils myself. Look down the sales and rental lists and you'll see people who seem to have hundreds of them and those are the ones that are for sale.
People don't yet realize whats I'm talking about. It's starting to dawn on them with some things like the Alpha and Beta gold foils that only have a few hundred copies but chickens with 27k copies aren't on most peoples radars yet as a card that is used constantly but no longer has enough copies to go around.
Creeping ooze has 84k copies so its in better shape but still, there are already more accounts out there playing than there are oozes to go around. And they are sitting on the market for $6 still and chickens are $34.
If people really understood the economics of these numbers, you would no see chickens for $34. First, no one would list them for that price and second, any that were would be snapped up instantly.
I just bought a Malric gold card for $800 and to some people that seems ridiculous but as of right now, there were 40x more people who opened accounts yesterday alone than there are Malric the Inferno Alpha gold foils in existence.
I know more cards are coming. I totally get that. But what I want to stress to anyone sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what happens to prices before they jump in or the people who believe they are getting great prices right now so they are listing their whole portfolio is that the economics of the cards is changing faster than the prices are.
Even with all these increases we've seen, prices still haven't caught up with the reality. And more and more that reality must include that our rate of growth is still picking up speed in a healthy and predictable manner.
If the economics of a chicken changed so dramatically from 5000 to 105k accounts, what happens at one-million?
Not financial advice. I'm broke and you will be too if you listen to me