When I first joined Steemit a month ago, perceived inequality was one of the hot topics-de-jours. I started tracking trends in stake-holding distribution from 15th July. After two weeks of tracking, I submitted my initial findings two weeks ago. There was a clear and rapid trend of re-distribution, particularly from whales to orcas/super-dolphins. Two weeks on, the equation is changing once again - particularly in Week 4.
The stacked chart represents Steem Power distribution over the last 4 weeks. It's immediately obvious things are a lot more nuanced this time, relative to the first two weeks. Let's dive in.
Methodology
The core methodology remains unchanged. The goal of this study is to determine the changes in impact of various stake-holding tiers on the Steemit community over time. To that intent, I have been tracking Active 24 Hours Vests distribution from Steemd.com.
Over the last 4 weeks, I have collected over 300 data points. For further details about the methodology, do read through the first post.
All charts show data from all 4 weeks - naturally the second half of each chart is the new data. I've also added a polynomial trendline. Fair warning - there's some speculation involved.
Over 1 Billion Vests - The Whales
Week 3 continued the trend established in the first 2 weeks - the whales' stake-holding continued to decline, reaching a trough of 68.5%. However, in Week 4, their stake-holding has been trending up once again, hinting at a reversal to the general re-distribution trend.
At some point earlier this month, the whales have become more organized and have re-examined their curation priorities. They have also become more active. Two weeks ago, there were 26-30 whales active everyday. In Week 4, this number has increased to 30-34. Four accounts may not sound like much - but that's a 15% increase given the small population. This has had a significant impact, clearly responsible for the uptick over the last few days.
Looking forward, I expect the 1B+ Vests stake-holding to plateau out at 72% and then start dropping again, albeit at a much slower pace than we saw in Weeks 1 and 2.
10 Million Vests to 1 Billion Vests - The Dolphins (and the Orcas)
The orcas' (100 MV and above) spectacular growth in Week 1 was already showing signs of slowing down by Week 2. By Week 3, their stake-holding had pretty much plateaued. However, Week 4 brought a dramatic an unexpected reversal. The orcas' stake-holding has positively plummeted in the last few days. This is likely a direct result of aforementioned change in priorities for the whales shifting towards growing diversity across the community.
The 10MV-100MV dolphins fair much better. In weeks 1 and 2, they were essentially flat. This is the category which sees a lot of activity, building the foundation for future curators. Many minnows are promoted to dolphin status, while <100MV dolphins being promoted to the >100MV tier. The net effect was a flat curve due to slow re-distribution among the minnows.
Things are starting to change - we finally see a gentle upswing for this volatile tier in Weeks 3 and 4. I fully expect this trend to gain pace, ceteris paribus.
Under 10 Million Vests - The Minnows
We saw a hint of upward pressure from the 1 M to 10 M Vest tier leading to the gentle rise of the 10 MV to 100 MV tier. It is happening - the crucial 1 MV to 10 MV tier has skyrocketed in Week 4.
2 weeks ago, I had expected the stake-holding to trickle down, but it looks like re-distribution in Week 4 has skipped the dolphins and headed directly from whales to minnows. This uptick is a (flipped) mirror image of the decline in orcas' stake.
Looking further down, under 1 MV continue to hold negligible stake. There's a slight increase, but I don't expect these two tiers to take off as the successful <1MV minnows are continuously promoted to the 1MV-10MV category in short order.
TL;DR
It has been a dramatic week. We have seen some significant shifts. Whales are more active and organized than ever before with their curation efforts. They have shifted a major chunk of their re-distribution from orcas all the way down to the minnows. Instead of waiting for a trickle-down effect, we may be seeing minnows moving their way up the ranks to dolphin status. However, I'm concerned this shift may be too dramatic - orcas are essential for curating diverse content in the short term.
This would be a good time to remind ourselves that the Steem platform and the Steemit community are at a very nascent stage. Things will change on a daily basis, often significantly. Medium-to-long-term, I expect the re-distribution to settle down, particularly once the inflation rate for Steem settles at 100%. But for the next few weeks and months, it's going to be a wild ride.
Bonus - All Accounts Distribution
For those who requested Active 7 Days or All time trends in response to the first post, here's something for you. This is how the All Accounts trend looks over the last 4 weeks.
The movement is simply too slow to notice - there are way too many bots, investors and inactive users that dilute actual trends for impact on the community. Even Active 7 days masks the rapid evolution Steemit is undergoing.