Well, everyone in the altcoin space knows that it's been a long and terrible 2 years for price. It's just been one long and painful decline. The charts show that, but you probably don't need a chart. You just need to see the value of your balance and know how much it's sucked.
Well, I have some good news for those that like to look at charts. We've experienced what's known as a bullish crossover on the daily Steem vs USD chart. You can see a close up of that happening here!
The short term moving average for price has crossed over the long term moving average for price. The chart folks will tell you that's bull-ISH. It's an ISH because it's not a promise the market will go up, but the tendency is that when the short term goes above the long term that's usually a good indicator that prices will go up.
Steem-USD daily chart (calculated from Bittrex prices)
On the daily chart above I count 5 times that this cross has occurred for Steem vs the USD. Three of them were in an uptrend and the token saw rallies that at least doubled the price. One of them (the forth one) was in a downtrend and even though the moving average had a bullish crossover it didn't hold.
Steem price recently jumped from the 11 cent range to the 16 cent range and has held. By holding in a new range it has allowed the moving averages to cross into bullish territory.
If you're looking for signals for entry points to consider buying Steem then moving average cross overs are one of the places that technical analysts point to for entry and exit points.
Oddly enough, Steem doing a bullish crossover is actually leading bitcoin doing a bullish cross over. It doesn't look like bitcoin will have that bullish crossover for another day or two (assuming price holds).
I've heard a lot of anguish over the years of just how much that Steem price lags bitcoin and the top alt coins before it's showed any price-love. Well, this is the first time since I've been here that I've seen Steem be just a touch ahead on any chart. So, that's cool!
What's it mean?
Kinda depends. If you think charting is stupid then it's nothing. If you think charting has any indication of future price movements then it's a bullish event. One bullish event does not a 100X rally make, but it could be the start of a nice run, or it could just be a little folly before it gets worse. Price prediction is hard. If it was easy everyone would be rich.
What do you think will happen because of the halv(en)ing?
Steem's market is small compared to other crypto markets. The combined crypto market is small compared to other major markets like cash, stocks, bonds, and real estate. There are very large macroeconomic factors which include things like Chinese pandemics that likely have a lot more to do with dictating price than how many custom json are happening on Steem. That said, it is kind of a big deal that bitcoin is going to halve ~3 months from now as it only happens once every 4 years.
The two schools of thought are:
The halv(en)ing is priced in.
The halv(en)ing is not priced in.
Priced in means that traders have weighed their options and the collective will and thought process of the masses have determined that our current price at this current time is the correct value.
The not priced in crowd would say something like, it's a battle where bears are pushing and keeping prices down to try to accumulate as much as possible before the bull run hits. Then those bears are the people that will help price push up so they can sell you bitcoin at a high price after they had accumulated at a low price.
Things to consider for your own due diligence.
Things look good?
I'm hoping for a nice run over the next 12-24 months. I think thinks are lining up and looking good for that. I think crypto looks like it's set to move, and I think Steem is showing signs it's right there rather than "well, we'll have to see if Steem is included." But who knows? This stuff is hard to predict and I'm not expert. I'm just making observations and reporting them as part of my journey and learning, but I would also say a fortune teller or better yet an actual professional trader or better yet one of the whales that actually move the markets will likely have better accuracy than me. So, take it all with a grain of salt.
Disclaimer
I'm not a professional investment adviser. I'm not even a technical analyst. I'm not much of a trader either to be honest. I'm just a dude that likes to stay abreast of events and prices so I can consider how I want to budget for the various projects that I'm working on. I don't know you or your family circumstances so it's impossible to know what's right for you and your family. I find this thought provoking, fun, and entertainment for me to document my own journey and experience.
Caution is provided for those that want to consider it as part of their financial journey, experience, and due diligence!