The STEEM-BTC price broke out of its range in the last 24 hours. A new range may be forming.
For the past ten days, the STEEM-Bitcoin price had been in a range between ~40K and ~58K satoshis. An ascending triangle pattern had been forming over the past few days, with a strong uptrend line starting at 43K satoshis. On the fourth attempt to break out in as many days, the STEEM-BTC price pierced resistance and made a run to ~65K satoshis before temproarily retreating back to ~59K.
On the chart below, we can see the previous line of resistance around 58K satoshis and the ascending triangle pattern on the right.
Zooming in on the 24-hour chart below, we can see the breakout that occurred right around 59K. It then ran pretty quickly to 65K, as there was essentially no resistance between those prices. The price retreated back to 59K, then rose again to ~67K satoshis before falling and rising once again. If the price does not fall below 59K again, we may be looking at a new trading range for the short-term between 59K (red line) and 65K (blue line).
It should be noted that these prices can quickly break higher or lower, as there isn't much historical support/resistance at these levels.
Possible retracements for this most recent move upward will ultimately fall back on previous support/resistance. These targets are mostly confirmed by the Fibonacci bands. The first support line would fall around 56-57K satoshis. A 50% retracement would be around 53-54K and the 23.6% retracement would bring prices back to fairly strong support at 46-47K. If there was a full retracement, which I would not expect, the STEEM-BTC price would fall back to ~40K.
If prices should break out instead of break down, we could see 70K satoshis very quickly and possibly a re-test of the recent highs in the upper 70s. This would be an extremely bullish move considering that BTC prices continue to reach all-time highs.
The STEEM-U.S. Dollar price has already reached its recent high. It is currently trading above $1.25 at the time of posting this analysis and has similar signs of strength as the STEEM-BTC price, which is expected.
What can we expect for STEEM-BTC prices?
Bitcoin continues to move upward, which can ultimately put a lot of pressure on the alt-coin market. If the BTC price continues to rise, alt-coins could drop - relative to Bitcoin. It's important to make a distinction between BTC trading pairs and the actual price in Dollars or other currencies. Even if the STEEM-BTC price falls, the STEEM-U.S. Dollar price can rise. If you're trading on exchanges like Bittrex or Poloniex, your trades against BTC are only gains or losses against Bitcoin. Having an accumulation strategy for either STEEM or BTC (or both) will determine whether or not you're gaining or losing at any given time.
That being said, STEEM is making some headway against BTC even with Bitcoin rising to new highs. To me, this is a strong bullish indicator for STEEM in the near- to mid-term. The trend continues be up for STEEM prices, so any trading strategies that you might have will need to take this very much into consideration. The stronger trend is usually the prevailing trend in a given market. There may be short-term pull-backs, but until the long-term uptrend is reversed, these pull-backs will mostly be relatively small (and healthy) corrections.
Watch for another possible upside breakout around 67K satoshis and be aware that a correction can still occur if the price falls back under 59K. As long as those prices hold, this range can be traded for some very good profits, up to ~13.5%.
If you're trading, always remember:
Never invest or trade what you cannot afford to lose and put tight stop-losses in when prices creep lower towards the support lines.
As always, if you have any critiques or comments about my non-professional analysis, please let me know. If you decide to trade this market, good luck to you!
Disclaimer: I am not a professional adviser and this info should not be used for trading. These are only my interpretations and opinions, and while I would be flattered that you think so highly of my fairly basic analysis, it would not be prudent to use this for transacting/trading with real money.
*Charts are from Poloniex and Coinmarketcap.com. Analysis is current as of approximately 2:00pm EST, May 20, 2017.
