I have been using Linux since 2000 and the whole premise that different groups were working on versions that had a different set of packages, package managers, and setup tools wasn't EVER confusing for me. And I was just a young pup in high school.
But despite being a crypto nerd it is super confusing to me with these different projects being worked on within the same coin. The Bitcoin XT situation and the struggle to reach consensus on that has baffled me. I get the issues at hand but if I'm getting confused by that then your casual user or a person just looking to get involved has to be completely lost.
Questions That A New User Might Ask
- Which Bitcoin Should I Use?
- Can I Send My Coins To People Using Bitcoin XT?
- Will My Coins Be Phased Out?
- What If I Have Coins and then Everyone Switches To A Different Version? Will my coins be worthless?
With the recent Ethereum Drama it makes this situation even worse in my mind. Now that the chain has actually forked and then the exchanges are trading both versions people are going to get confused as to where to deposit coins and what is going on.
People don't even know what to call the "Vatalik" Version of Ethereum. You know the version that most of the people supported that is a fork to deal with the huge hack. You know...... "Real Etherium" where the logo is kind of greyish. Not the "Classic" Rogue Version.
Confused yet?
It is a major issue and now I'm hearing talks that members of the "Vatalik" version of Ethereum are going to attempt to destroy the "Classic Ethereum." I think they know it is going to cause huge confusion.
One Step Forward Two Steps Back
Personally I feel that in a lot of ways Bitcoin is actually behind where it was two years ago. Mainly because they can't get past the block size debate and it is getting confusing with the different projects. Also people are having to pay higher fees to get their transactions through in a timely manner and that was one of the big pitches for Bitcoin. Low transaction fees.
Etherium is following the same path of in fighting and the inability to gain consensus.
Will Bitcoin and Etherium go the way of Friendster and Myspace?
If you don't remember Friendster and Myspace they had a couple year head start on Facebook but Facebook was able to rocket past them. In my opinion Facebook succeeded because it was first an exclusive place just for college kids. I was on Facebook in 2004 when it was TheFacebook.com. You had to have a .edu e-mail address to get on it. I also got on Friendster a little bit before Facebook and I felt it was hard to connect to my friends. Myspace to me always looked like a 7th graders shitty HTML project.
Once Facebook opened up their platform to the masses after they got all the college kids addicted MySpace was vaporized.
Now a lot of people are going to be pissed at me for saying this or even hinting at it but if Bitcoin and Etherium can't get past the current hurdles then they will likely get passed.
I think Bitcoin will sort out what is going on and will be a good store of long term value but at this current time I don't see it going mainstream to the masses. Two years ago I had a different opinion. I thought it had a chance.
In 2001 I knew Linux Would Take Over The World
I actually got Linux+ Certified when I was still in high school and I was always talking about how I had a dual boot with SuSE 6.3 and Redhat 7.2. I believe both of those had kernel version 2.4. I would tell everyone that Linux was going to take over the world. (Nobody cared and knew I was a nerd) This was at a time when you would have endless dependency errors and it was a bitch to install much of anything. But it was fun when you finally got it!
I knew it would gain traction for embedded devices and in the server space but when I said it was going to take over I really meant that it would take over on the desktop. Despite the fact that I'm one of a small percentage of people who uses Linux on the desktop it didn't take over there. It happened with Android on the mobile devices. Despite owning Google stock mainly because their ad business was sound I never felt like I caught a big ride in predicting the spread of Linux.
Bitcoin Crypto Will Take Over The World
Until Bitcoin can come to consensus I can't say it will take over the world. The same thing goes for Ethereum. Personally I feel that #Dash and #Monero have a better shot despite the fact that I don't have a position in either of those right now. Steem / Steemit have a better shot right now in my opinion as well.
Since Late 2014 I had to change my prediction to say that crypto would take over the world and it will most likely happen in a way that I don't expect. Is Steem / Steemit the ride? Over the last week I have been trying to figure out if I have actually caught the wave this time or if I have missed it again.
If you have ever surfed it is extremely hard to catch the wave. You will be in front of it and paddle like hell to stay in front of it but often times it will pass you by.
That is how I have felt so many times on my predictions. Here is a list of the waves I have seen but only caught a small ride or got crushed.
2000 - Linux (Partial Ride)
2009 - Stock / Option Market (Partial Ride)
2010 - Real Estate (Partial Ride)
2013 - Crypto (Crushed)
2016 - Next evolution of Crypto? (To Be Determined)
Summary
I want to pose a few questions to everyone.
- Whether you are super into Linux or just casually know about it, is the fact that Linux distributions are built on the same kernel base and have different branding and preinstalled packages and package managers confusing to you?
- Is the fact that there are these different iterations of Bitcoin and Ethereum confusing to you?
- Is the inability of these #crypto projects a result of being decentralized projects without a small handful of people making the decisions like in development environments at large corporations?
- Will the inability to come to consensus doom #Bitcoin and #Etherium and leave the door open to a hybrid model where a blockchain technology is controlled by a corporation?
