It is hard to admit to staying too long in a loosing trade, but this is again the case but I learnt something again.
I gained though some valuable observations when watching polo's order book behavior. E.g. how trading algorithms try to fill in gaps after a bigger move. More or less it I could try to describe it as a high turbulence in the order book and a lot of order book stuffing is going on. I suspect this may even have its physical mathematical definiton and description (Shock waves and entropy ?) After some time the entropy is back to normal and the whole order book stabilizes. I am quite sure that HFT guys already have algorithms that take advantage of that behaviour.
Another interesting observation is that BUY and SELL orders with 1 satoshi delta seem to confuse the algos trading on STEEM/BTC.
E.g. BUY order 0,30 BTC of STEEM at 8534 satoshi and SELL order 0,30 BTC of STEEM at 8535 satoshi seems to stop order book filing for a while until a trade is made.
Anyway the conclusion is needed. I discovered that it is hard for one to predict where a falling knife will stop i.e. where is the exact bottom point in a low liquidity market, and my definition for Poloniex is less than average 100 BTC daily turnover to be a low liquidity market. Just looking at the current buy side:
2017-03-02 07:29:15 last buy 0.0019@0.00008150
0.00008030 : 1.470480589513353
0.00007781 : 1.133032990536533
0.00007780 : 1.0012870012867778
0.00007738 : 1.6899018199999998
0.00007570 : 1.6532122999999999
0.00007548 : 2.126854730000641
0.00006256 : 0.999999999999512
0.00006118 : 1.8000000000002438
0.00006006 : 0.9999999999996004
0.00005009 : 0.9999999800000863
0.00002298 : 21.66245374580646
0.00001201 : 1.0012010000000708
0.00001200 : 1.00000000000008
0.00001108 : 1.0000000000000284
0.00000111 : 1.0400000000000034
Total buys 53.11313258963531 BTC
Total buys > 0.95 BTC : 39.57842415714339 BTC
Anyone with 30 BTC worth of STEEM can with a single dump "create" a 0.00002298 satoshi bottom, therefore it is easy to commit a Seppuku trying to catch it.
We "almost made it" in WTF area below, but there was no clear demand (35 BTC buy wall guy did not show up ;)
Bitcoin is still soaring which has effect on STEEM price though in my humble opinion ETF decision is already priced in.