I'm on Steemit since STEEM was trading at $0.1 (that's 10 cents, to be clear) and I've seen many ups and downs. But the recent surge in SBD, started in November last year - and still going on, at the moment - was definitely the most intriguing. Especially given the intrinsic nature of SBD, as a token, which is not really a currency, but merely a debt based smart contract, with a very limited supply.
So I sat down this morning and tried to understand how this all happened. What follows is partially a bed time story, partially an attempt at technical analysis and partially an observation of social engineering (sheesh, I think I might just defined how cryptocurrency trading works, in general, with that phrase - but that's another story).
Anyways, let's start.
First Toe In The Water
On Wednesday, November 22nd, the first attempt at pumping is observed on Bittrex, with a very long wick, on significant volume. Which means somebody tried to see "what if"? This first attempt didn't seem to be very successful, as the price didn't move much. But it may have been very interesting for the ones involved, because, a week and a half later, they tried with the second toe.
Second Toe In The Water
On Saturday, December 2nd, a new attempt is made, this time on much less volume, but with more relevant results. The gains, albeit small, are kept for the next few days and looks like the ground was set for the big move.
The Big Move
On Thursday, December 7th, in only one day, SBD triples in value, going from 24k satoshis to almost 75k satoshis. For the next couple of days, the price struggles a lot, but it stabilizes around 76k satoshis (after briefly reaching 100k satoshis). A very interesting day is Sunday, December 12nd, because it signals "the acceptance" of the new price. It's the longest candle in the chart (meaning the biggest price variation) with both wicks extremely longs (meaning a lot of indecision and ups and downs between buying and selling). In my opinion, this day is the day that "puts a stamp" on SBD as being a valuable token, something "worth to play with".
Getting Down To Business - Part One
On Monday, December 18th, the week starts in full force, with a pump that lasts until Thursday, December 21st. Since that day, until the first day of 2018, price goes steadily down, indicating low interest (holidays, etc)
Getting Down To Business - Part Two
On another Monday, January 1st 2018 (we'll see down the road why these week days are important), another pump is started, but it's short lived, because in a few days, the FUD starts and Bitcoin crash hits. The recovery starts on a Saturday, and then we reach today, when we see the beginning of a new upwards formation.
Let's Look At The Weekdays Again
Wednesday - First toe in the water
Saturday - Second toe in the water
Thursday - The big pump
Monday - The second pump (getting down to business)
Monday - Another pump (keeping it down to business)
Saturday - Cautious correction
last Friday - Pump
I think I start to see a pattern here. Please bear with me, as this is borderline fiction now.
So, the first two attempts were made on very low volume. Just to see if "it works", if the coin "can be moved".
The big pump was made on very big money. Some serious whales colluding was done there, or at least a very big whale poured tons of money into SBD.
Once the token was "established", it attracted more "stable but serious" traders, which included SBD in their weekly trading routine.
It's very important to mention that the first two attempts and the big pump happened in the second part of the week, or even during weekends. That may say: we're not institutional traders, we're playing the markets during weekends, but we do have enough power to move this thing up.
And then, once the token was "established', the pump moved on weekdays. That may say: we're institutional traders and this thing just came under our radar. Let's play it up.
The last correction happened on a weekend too (but this was also mingled with FUD and news about clamping down on crypto) and the current pump started on a Friday.
To put it all together: SBD was probably pumped initially by a group of whales (or a single, very powerful whale), during weekends, until they put it on the agenda of daily traders. From that moment on, SBD was just "business as usual", until FUD came. And we're now seeing a move by which the initial pumpers may bring SBD again on the radar, by sending a message that the coin "is still worth it".
This may be fiction or it may be real. Whatever the reasons, I'm watching this with curiosity and interest and do my best to enjoy it while it lasts.
Disclaimer: I'm not a professional trader and this is not trading advice. Investing in publicly traded assets is risky. Investing in unregulated cryptocurrencies is the mother of risky. Please make your own due diligence and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me 
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