we used to plan and hope for a "steem 2020 moon" -- the idea was that around 2020, it would be possible for steem to achieve very high token valuations (as in $$$) as the blockchain market grows and steem matures.
there will be no moon for steem in 2020.
image source: nasa
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in 2016, steem was a top 10 token with a lot of rapid adoption and growth. we saw major mainstream influencers joining our network (neil strauss and kevin rose are two examples -- neither is active here today). SMTs were soon to be announced, and lots of community initiatives (curie, ocd, sndbox, and many more) were gaining power and prominence and seemed to have promise. the ecosystem felt fertile.
what did we forget? that the whole thing was an experiment.
we didn't know what the results would be.
--> the results are in <--
well, my friends, the results are in. steem is still a great community and a great blockchain. we're a very successful niche social media site that brings together people from around the world to discuss our common interests: art, philosophy, self-actualization and freedom, technology.
but we're no longer a top 10 blockchain gaining mainstream adoption...
we're a niche blockchain, a top 100 blockchain with little growth and very few (none?) major voices joining our community from outside. things have slowed down.
if we try to continue down the path of the "moon in 2020" narrative, all we are doing is ignoring the facts right in front of us.
pragmatic, not pessimistic
no moon in 2020 is not an insult or pessimism. it is pragmatism. how can steem make us happy and do good for the world? and why do we have to obsess over scale and size? i'd much rather focus on community and on infrastructure. what if SMTs are good because they allow our current users to do more cool things -- regardless of adoption?
this focus on growth and adoption is unhealthy because it's no longer reflecting the reality. if we want to grow, we should think about rebuilding, not about maintaining momentum. the momentum is gone for now.
the great steem experiment continues!
on the plus side, our experiment continues. we've learned a lot and so far we haven't made the same mistakes twice. i am excited to see the results of Hard Fork 21, which could have some great non-intuitive benefits for creators by reducing the influence of bidbots. or it could be a step in the wrong direction... either way, Hard Fork 22 will be another chance to fix, maintain, or improve the results.
i'm optimistic for the friendships and community that i get to experience every day thanks to steem. i'm pessimistic on anybody who thinks that "moon 2020" is a necessary part of the steem experience. enjoy now, be patient.
if you want to talk about moons and scale -- maybe our new motto should be Steem Moon 2024?