The creation of tokens
The way I understand it, Steem tokens are generated all the time, with each new block added to the blockchain. They are given to:
- Steem Power (SP) holders simply for holding SP
- Steem Dollar (SMD) holders simply for holding SMD
- Content creators for posting and curating content
- Block producers for producing blocks
- Maybe other rewards I forget
However, as far as I can tell, there's no mechanism for destorying tokens, other than the occasional user losing access to their wallet.
That in turn means, that altogether the sum of the various tokens in the ecosystem will keep rising forever.
So the question is, how can something have long-term value if more and more of it is just constantly generated for all eternity?
The short-term hype
Steem is in its infancy but clearly gaining popularity. At this stage, it makes sense for early speculators to buy in, hoping that this will drive the price up and other speculators arriving later to the party will still buy in for the same reason. Also, most newly generated tokens are awarded to Steem Power holders, which provides one more reason to buy in early.
In my opinion, the increasing prices seen at exchanges can be explained by these two factors alone, which both come down to 'short-term hype' but do not guarantee any long-term value for the tokens.
The inevitable value drop
Like all other currencies, Steem tokens obviously have no intrinsic value. But all the people who invested time or money to get Steem tokens have needs. They need food, shelter, services, luxories, whatever. Given the history of other cryptocurrencies, I think it's fair to say that a few years down the line, even if all goes well for Steem, to satisfy most of these needs, people will need to exchange their Steem tokens for other currencies, most likely still fiat.
As time goes on and the price keeps going up, less and less people will be investing speculatively. As content creators, as well as people already invested keep generating tokens out of thin air, more and more people will want to exchange their tokens for more tangible assets that satisfy their needs.
At some point, inevitably, more people will want to cash out than buy in. The price of tokens will drop and keep falling as people are trying to get rid of the abundant but useless Steem tokens. Producing content or investing won't be worthwhile anymore and there will be a new hype-coin to invest in anyway. The Steem ecosystem will die.
The only way out
There's another possibility though. Maybe Steem manages to do what no other cryptocurrency could so far. Maybe before this breaking point happens, Steem tokens will have gained enough popularity to also gain real 'value'. 'Value' in the sense that they can be exchanged directly for food, services, products and one can live a normal life just by earning and spending Steem tokens without worrying about exchange rates.
In this case, we need to give some serious thought to what kind of currency Steem tokens are. For every one token awarded to people investing time and energy, nine are awarded to the rich already holding tokens.
Is that a currency worth having?
Closing thoughts
Needless to say, these are two extremities. The reality will probably end up being somewhere inbetween. But either way, my point stands: While I understand why Steem is desirable to short-term speculators, I do not see how it provides a long-term value to humanity.
Feel free to convince me otherwise or just point out why I'm wrong in the comments.