There are several people who post regular updates outlining Steem stats and developments on Steem, drawing on several different metrics, but which of these metrics are the most valid indicators of Steem's progress? (Defining progress loosely as 'positive change').
Please add in your own variables and/ or modify the formula as you see fit!
To list just a few of the posts outlining said metrics:
produces Weekly Steem Stats Reports which cover the Steem price, number of accounts transacting, number of votes and comments, as well as power ups/ powerdowns and transfers to and from exchanges.
produces Daily Steem Statistics - which overlaps with the above, but also includes much more information on distribution. This also includes a nice chart outlining the types of transaction (% of posts to jsons for example).
- does a weekly update of the distribution of 'lower SP' accounts - how many accounts have 1/10/1000/ 500 SP.
was doing a great weekly steemnews post which had links to key developments on Steem, often focusing on DApps, but also summarising some 'key statistics' such as the price of steem, no of Whales etc, and Alexa ranking.
- does a very clean bi-weekly overview of [steempowerdown statistics].(https://steempeak.com/exyle/@exyle/powerdown-statistics-11-may-6th-may-19th)
produces the curation leagues every week - focussing on engagement on steem, and while this is an opt-ine competition, so it doesn't cover all users, some of the metrics such as comment length, lack of self-voting, spread of votes, depth of engagement are worth considering as 'progress indicators'.
All of this means we’ve got several different perspectives all analysing changes on Steem using several different indicators.
Personally, I don’t find using a huge breadth of indicators to be especially useful – I find it bewildering, there’s just too much data. I want to be able to make an assessment of how well Steem is doing by just looking at a few metrics, but which of the above (if any) are the most valid indicators of Steem’s progress?
This is difficult to answer because your choice of 'progress metrics' will probably be influenced by what you want out of Steem and what you want Steem to be...
If all you want is a way of making a quick buck and care about nothing else, then the Steem price against the dollar may well suffice as your one metric, but if you're a content creator or a developer who wants to make a home here, you're probably also interested in Vested Steem power compared to liquid steem, as that provides you with a more (thought not necessarily) valid indicator of the stability and future potential of the Steem price, and you'll probably want to see the number of active users/ transactions increasing too.
If you believe the strength, or even purpose of Steem is in its anti-censorship and alternative news functions, then you'll be interested in how many people are viewing (certain) Steem posts, and probably in how much interaction is being generated, and the depth and even consequences of that interaction. You might even be interested in somehow measuring how much diversity there is on the blockchain.
And if you're just generally rational, you'll certainly be interested in the downward distribution of Steem - at least if you want a decentralised system with a stable middle class capable of protecting the 40 Whales (who aren't reading this) from their own greed and ruining this blockchain for the rest of us.
Beyond wishy washy postmodernism
Having said all of the above, I'm not a postmodernist and I'm not about to accept that every metric is equal and everyone has the right to choose whichever metric they want to judge Steem's progress - NO. Some of these metrics are more valid than others, some are completely pointless, and only some should be used by the Witnesses to make judgement calls about whether they should make certain changes to the Steem ecosystem when called on to do so.
For a start, some things are easier to measure than others, and some things are reducible to others (not sure if that's grammatically correct?) - what I mean is that it might be the case (as a hypothetical example) that the Steem price increases as Vested Steem or Active Users increase, with either (or some kind of combination of both of) the later causing the former, in which case we only need look at the later rather than the former.
And we might also find that if some metrics improve in the short run, this could be bad in the long run - for example a speculative drive on Steem might boost the price, but trigger a later sell off which sends the price plummeting to a lower point than it was originally. However, we might also find that such an action has a net positive effect IF certain other variables change at the same time - a combination of speculation, more Vests, more users, more engagement all working together might lead to a sustained rise.
And we might find that some metrics just have no effect on anything and simply don't matter - the Alexa ranking might be a good candidate here?
In short, there's a lot to think about when choosing your progress metrics!
On the validity of selected metrics for measuring Steem's Progress
Here I'm just going to consider the main indicators I tend to use to measure Steem's progress, I'm not sure these are the most valid measurements, but they're the ones I use. Comments welcome if you think I should be looking at anything else.
The Steem price against the dollar
An obvious starting point as the ‘ultimate indicator’ of Steem’s progress or lack of progress is the Steem price against the dollar. This indicator is, after, all, plastered prominently across many front ends of, and cited in the majority of ‘Steem progress reports’.
Surely we can all agree that if the Steem price is rising against the dollar then this is ‘positive change’ and thus progress?
I’d argue that this is not a sufficient indicator to measure ‘progress’ on Steem – most obviously because a price rise against the dollar might just be purely speculative, and if you’re on Steem to build a business, such unpredictable temporary increases might be unwelcome: price alone is no measure of stability, which is what you'll want if you're building a business or even just a presence on Steem.
Also, the price rise might just be following Bitcoin, as many alt coins do, so just a reflection of that.
Finally, if you're anti-fiat it's a bit pointless measuring progress against the dollar, since you don't see that as a legitimate currency anyway!
Personally I'm not going to rule this out as a valid indicator of progress, given that I am investing in Steem to get a return, so this will remain my 'ultimate indicator', but my speculative brain says I may as well just follow the BTC price if I want to predict purely the price of Steem, judging against a certain 'out point' I've got in mind, where I will be taking some profit.
However, I see more potential in Steem rather than just a profit-farm, but to assess that potential I feel like I need to look way beyond the price....
Powered up Steem in relation to liquid Steem/ SBD
This I think is quite an important indicator as Powering Up is a sign of committment to Steem, to a certain extent, as it ties up Steem so that it's not immediately available and it reduces the supply available on the exchanges. All other things being equal, the more Steemis powered up in week/ month, the better.
Having said that, this alone gives me no indication of what people are doing with Steempower - if all people are doing is vote selling, self-voting and then cashing out Steem and selling it on the exchanges then there is no upward pressure on the price - hence why we need to know Powered Up Steem to Liquid Steem/SBD as this gives us a nice, simple indication of how much is committed.
This is firmly in my most valid indicator box, just in itself
Distribution of Steem across accounts
The distribution data provided by
Relatively less SP held by the current top 40 Whale accounts is very much a sign of progress IMO.
Number of and type of transactions
All other things being equal, the more people using Steem, the more people will be talking about Steem, and the more people will be buying it. I'm sold on the argument that Steem is no longer just a blogging platform, it's much more diverse than that, so we need to look at transactions rather than just posts and comments.
I don't know what the most valuable transactions are however, and I'm aware that some transactions will be bot induced, so I do treat this one with some degree of caution.
I also think this is much more valid as an indicator of Steem progress than either 'new accounts' and 'new users' - this tells us about actual activity.
From
's daily stats: are some types of transactions better indicators than the health of the ecosystem than others?
DAPP development posts and stats
This is harder to measure, but I keep an eye on what's going on with 
Final thoughts....
There are plenty of other things I could look at.... If I was focussing just on blogging I'd say engagement, manual curation, avoidance of bots were all important metrics, but given that Steem's moving away from blogging now (according to everyone expect for the until recently distant but now in touch yet seemingly out of touch STINC), I'm not sure this matters that much for the wider success of the platform: such indictors are important if you're into blogging, but if we want mass adoption (that's the aim, right), most people don't blog, so transactions are a better indicator, right?
And there may be other, more valid indicators too. If you've got the time and mental energy to suggest a few, please do let me know!
Pic sources
https://steempeak.com/statistics/@arcange/steem-statistics-20190525-en