At current prices, I would need ~5700 Steem per month which is ~$1200 US or ~1000€
For me, this is mortgage and body corporate costs on my apartment. This covers no other living expenses. So hypothetically, if I wanted to be able to pay my rent off my vote, what price of Steem do I require? I am going to have to take some mathematical liberties as well as some 'all things remaining equal' for this but, it is just for fun.
Current voting Steem power is 31,000 SP and maximum vote value is 77 cents at 100% voting power.
For the purposes of this post I will "Haejin it" and self-vote 10x a day at the maximum 100% every 2.4 hours. That means that in a day, my vote value is worth 77 cents x 10 = $7.70 total.
30 x 7.70 = $231 US in a month.
not bad, but not enough
What that means is that for me to be able to cover my rent (assuming I take the entire amount out as liquids) the price would have to be 1200/231 = 5.1x the current value, so $1.10. At $1.10 my vote would be ~$3.90 and with 300x self votes a month, I could cover the $1200 dollars.
Now, I am not going to post crap 10x a day like Haejin and self-vote on it and currently my self-voting is at 16% but, 25% is a decent guide. That means the price to pay my rent taking all as liquids has to be $4.40 which would give me a vote value of $15.60.
2.5 per day x 15,60 x 30 days = $1170 US
Now, that is using the entire 100% of the value. If I only want to use the liquids, the price would need to double again to $8.80 and that would give me a vote of $31.20 using it 25% a day on myself and 75% on the community.
You see what happens in that scenario? While I would be able to cover my rent with 25% of my vote for 1200 dollars worth of Steem (which at 8.80 would only be 136 Steem) I would be adding an additional 3600 into the community in various ways. That is pretty interesting isn't it?
Of course, that is my apartment cost but if I was to live off Steem on an average Finnish Salary using my own vote and under the same set of conditions of 25% self-voting, I would need ~3x that so, a Steem price of $26.80. This is of course if I cover everything myself and no one ever votes on my content but I still vote on theirs 75% of my stake. But with Steem at 3 times the price, instead of 3600 in value, it would $10800 in value every month that goes into the community from my account.
But you know, holders are dreamers. Do you think that if I then decided to Haejin it and take $14,400 in value out per month, those who sold wouldn't complain, or would they acknowledge that I took the risk to hold and they took the risk to sell, fair is fair? This is all a game of risk isn't it and if things turn out with a very high Steem price somehow, those who sold have to be prepared to acknowledge they didn't play for the best outcome.
Of course, this is also all uncertain and they might get something out while I am left holding a bag of valueless Steem. Do you think they would be gracious "winners", would they give me some of the value they made to make up for me getting out with nothing?
By the way, 14,400 dollars at $26.80 Steem price would be a grand total of 537 Steem per month out of the pool, which has a current value of about $112. That means that to get there Steem price needs to increase by 128x from its current price. what are the probabilities?
Well, at 8 dollar Steem, the entire market cap of all coins was just under a trillion so that means there is a straight line potential that if 3.5 Trillion dollars pours into the marketplace, Steem could hit around the 25 dollar mark.
It is going to be interesting though isn't it because that means that a dolphin with the minimum 5000 SP would be distributing $2400 in value per month at a price of $26.80. That 5000 SP can be bought for about $1100 US at these prices. If it took 3 years to get to those prices from here, is 1100 dollars invested now and growing and returning for the next 3 to a point where it is generating 28,800 dollars in a year classed a good investment?
Oh, the inflation pool that has a current value of ~340k would be worth 22 million dollars and Steem would be distributing about 400 million dollars per year from the inflation pool.
This of course is all speculation on dreamer prices that might never come about but, it also doesn't include all of the other factors and revenue Streams that are available and could be available in the future. Of course, competition on the pool will increase as price increases which makes growing and getting traction harder too.
I am not holding my breath for Steem to hit those kinds of high values but. it is possible if all the stars align and things work out very well. It is no wonder that some people are putting in a great deal of effort to try and build Steem up for a long-term future position rather than a short-term sell. It also explains why some people are risking on buying in at such low prices with a long position on the future. Writing off 1200 dollars today would be one months rent for me but that same 1200 could potentially be 28,000 a year in a few years from now. Not everyone has the possibility to do this but, if Steem did hit that 26.80 point, how much Steem would be needed for 10 dollars a day?
Well, if at $8.80 my 31k SP vote is 31 dollars (~300 a day), That would mean about 1000 SP would generate about 10 dollars in vote value from the pool a day which would be about. 1.2 Steem worth.
Since it is Saturday night (almost 4 am) and Steem is in the gutter, it is a good waste of time for me to spend some it looking at numbers that I consider possible under the right conditions. Of course, the right conditions come with a lot of inherent uncertainty and risks that make accomplishing these things very hard to predict but, just for fun.
Would you want a tarazkp vote if it is worth 31 dollars?
This is the funny thing is, it is. The vests are the things doing the voting, not the price which means a 100% vote from me today a 77 cents draws the same amount from the pool if the price was 25 dollars on Steem. In actual fact, if you consider the lack of competition here now, it might be worth more than that as the more competition that comes, the less draw on the pool my vote will have. Of course, that 1.2 Steems my vote is worth would have to be held until Steem is worth 25 dollars.
Most don't have the patience.
Just for fun and remember, these numbers come with many exceptions and poetic licences.
Taraz
[ a Steem original ]