We all heard the "absurd" Bitcoin forecasts. $100,000...$500,000...even $1M.
Well, we just topped it. Yesterday, in a video, 
For those who are unaware,
Many people feel technical analysis is worthless and nothing more than a guessing game. This is a point I am not here to debate; that is for another day. However,
But is he of sane mind? Let us be honest, the numbers he tosses out there are outlandish. Only a nutter would believe any of them. Of course, of late, since I appear to turn into one of the top 3 or 5 STEEM cheerleaders, I received some of that same treatment. That said, the multi-billion dollar (or crypto) question is how can these blockchains how so much value? The largest company in the world is not worth $1T yet some technical fruitcake puts a value of $78T on Bitcoin? Get real.
Well, I am here to tell you that is real. Certainly, I have no way of knowing exactly what BTC will be worth. However, I do know the scenarios that
The first factor when looking at this market is short-term, a period of about 24 months. Here we see what I termed in one of my post the "big elephant": Wall Street. Over the next couple years, you will see the market cap on cryptos go from $250B to $2.5T at a minimum. Personally, I see $1.5T by the end of 2018. The bottom line is there is a lot of money about to enter this market and it will "lift all boats". I believe BTC will get the lion's share of that money yet alt-coins will share in the wealth. So far in 2017 we saw the establishment of over 125 hedge funds designed specifically to invest in cryptocurrencies. This is a drop in the bucket. I feel you can expect triple that number to pop up next year.
Factor number 2 is a bit longer term, let's say a period of 8-10 years. In that time, you will see the world GDP grow to $100T. While it is hard to predict exactly where it will be, it is fair to say that AI, automation, and other technological innovations should increase the growth rate a great deal over the next decade.
The most important thing to understand is that, whatever the GDP number is, almost all of it will be on blockchain. In a decade. most business will be taking place on this medium. Please note that GDP (as outdated a number as it is) entails the amount of commerce done, not worth. Hence, for simplicity it can be thought of as the world's revenue. Worth or valuation is an entirely different exercise.
So if blockchain is doing about $100T a year in business, what is it worth? Coming up with a figure is more art than science and really little more than a guessing game. That said, using a factor of 5 (which is about 1/3 the commonly used P/E ratio of 15 for the stock market), we come up with the total of $500T in value for all blockchains.
Does this seem outlandish to you? Consider the fact that the derivatives market is guesstimated to be $1.2-$1.5 quadrillion. In essence, we are talking about the network which has all the world's commerce being worth less than half of the "paper" bets Wall Street makes.
When you think about it in those terms, it isnt too outlandish. The numbers get huge very quickly. However, you can console yourself in the fact that the Internet was a multi-trillion innovation and blockchain is the Interent on steroids.
I am sure
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