I see a lot of outdated ideas posted. People like to hold onto their ideological beliefs. Sadly, they do not realize they are outdated. This is not the 1950s or even the 1990s. It is 2018 and it is time we all start to see what is happening.
There are a few major points that I will make which is seriously altering the state that humans will find themselves in. In short, much of society is screwed if we keep on the present path. These progressions cannot be stopped. The trajectory they are operating upon is clear as day if you are looking. This is blowing a hole into many thought processes, mostly without people even being aware.
To start, traditional economic thought has a basic premise that operated very well for decades. It was the correlation between capital and labor. In the past, if a company wanted to increase capital, it increased labor. This meant building a plant, employing it with people, producing a product which then required more people to market and sell. This, if done right, created more capital in the form of profit which then could be taken out of the business or reinvested into more labor.
It was a wonderful cycle that was flawless for decades.
Then we hit the age of automation. We hear a lot about the threat of automation in the future which is misleading. I will cover that in a bit.
Automation is simply machine working with humans. The common image is robotics on an assembly line but that is only a piece of it. Software that is used in offices on a daily basis is also a form of automation.
We see this everywhere, perhaps without realizing it. The automated answers system that replaced the receptionist is an example. So is the claw on the top of garbage trucks that made the two people on the back expendable. Buying stock online versus having a broker place the order is the same.
The result of all this automation is that people are more productive. That is the positive aspect to it. The negative is that it suppresses wages. The reason corporate entities keep people on is the ROI to automate is too long. This means that the threat of automating is enough to keep people employed at reduced rates.
We presently, in the U.S., have an unemployment rate that was not seen in 50 years, yet wages are barely moving. This is a very telling sign.
Every study that looked at the past 20 years revealed the same thing. Wages in the western countries are flat. Economies experienced growth yet the wages did not keep place unless you were at the upper tiers. We know the multiple of C-level pay versus the employees shot up.
This is life over the last couple decades.
But as they say, you haven't seen nothing yet.
When the media talks about automation destroying jobs in the future, it is showing how it does not understand the situation. We are not moving into a period of automation, we are already in it.
The next stage is autonomy.
When it comes to technology, this is a situation where machine operates without humans. It is either machines alone or interacting with each other.
This is the point many people miss. The economists who like to hang onto the idea that this time is no different from the past have no answer this. There will not be sufficient jobs to replace the ones lost simply because there is no need for the people. Machines will create other machines (HP 3D printers are already starting this process).
Another difficulty is the fact that it is not physical labor that is being replaced. Machines are getting rid of the need for human intellect in many situations. Sure, there will be room for some people in the decision-making process but not in comparison to the jobs lost.
Technological disrupt does not happen overnight although it often appears that way. Even the greatest of technological revolutions are evolutionary in nature. They are slow to start but then build upon themselves. We saw this with the smartphone. The first IPhone didn't sell hundreds of millions yet it got the ball rolling. Within a few years, every manufacturer had a smart phone (other than Nokia who lost their 90% market share). The entire market penetration reached 70% in under 8 years.
These are issues that traditional beliefs cannot answer. Whether it is in the hands of big business or governments, there is no doubt that, if we progress along the same path, these entities will only get more powerful. They are the ones who will have the autonomous technology.
Ideology is a wonderful thing. It is a neat package often handed to people in their upbringing. We accept it as fact and never have to question it. No matter what side of the issue one is on, there are others to support that belief. It also makes it easier to make the other wrong. Historically, we saw this with religious wars. Few even know what the other side believed but they knew the opposition was wrong.
Humanity has two choices. We can opt for the traditional views of the world and continue debating them. Of course, this only favors the elite since they are the ones who utilize the divide and conquer strategy. As long as we are fighting among each other, nobody questions what they are doing. To them, ideology means nothing; it is only a weapon used to get what they want: more control.
It all comes back to the individualism versus collectivism mindset. We are indoctrinated to believe that we have to "pull ourselves up by our bootstraps". The mindset is that if one does not succeed in life, it is his or her own fault. This is a rather naive view of what is taking place. There are tens of millions of people out there who are suffering through no fault of their own.
Of course, before anyone thinks this is a political stance, there are others who feel we need to develop even more of an unhealthy relationship with government. Always turning to Big Brother when something goes wrong. We end up like children who are dependent upon daddy because there is no other choice. This is not the solution either.
The answer lies in turning to each other. All destruction in the world comes from the fact that someone thinks of him or herself first (and only). Whether one is running a large corporation or throwing trash out the window, the mindset is the same. The only thing that matters is what I get out of this regardless of the damage it causes others.
Failure to band together is going to cause major problems. From my perspective, there is little time. I believe the next recession will result in a radical shift. When economies turn back, companies lay off workers. This is common practice. At the start of recovery, while slow to gear up, re-hiring does take place. We witnessed this cycles over many decades.
Not this time.
When the next recession hits, the layoffs will occur. After things start getting better, the jobs will not return. The reason: companies will have incentive to invest in autonomy. For an example of this, look at what happened in 2014 when the price of oil collapsed. Almost 300K people in West Texas Oil Fields lost their jobs. After the price recovered in 2016, there were still over 120K still out of work and not being rehired. Why? The oil companies found a way to drop the price per barrel from $60 to $35. They did this by reducing the number of people needed.
Expect this to occur across many industries. I believe we will see a recession within the next 3 years. The powers that are might be able to prop this thing up that long but it will collapse. Sustained runs always do.
And then there will be a tsunami heading our way. Will we be banded together to weather the hit or will our belief systems ensure we are all floating out there on our own? Remember, there are few life preservers and the elite have most of them.
I implore everyone to give this some thought.
To end on a high note, I do also feel that those who are involved in cryptocurrency are going to be fine. We are at the forefront of another storm that is taking place, one that favors humanity. Sadly, as of this moment, few are involved in it.
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