A lot of people asked me is BTC bottom yet!? The short answer toward that question is “most likely NOT” a lot of people predicted the BTC will go down to $8000, which it did. But now most of people believe it will hit back rapidly. I would say NOT YET! Be cautious and monitoring it closely.
BTC at the end break my lower limit prediction 7900, but stop at 7590. If you look at it traceable bounce at the graph above you will find Each Time BTC crash , the magnitude of the bounce back is getting smaller and smaller (first time 50-60% bounce, 2nd time 30-40%, 3rd 20-30% And now 10% ) that is extremely bearish market outlook and it indicating the investor loss confidence that less and less people buying it back. It is doing the opposite things from December.
The media attention from BTC generate the big spike in December. The “overnight millionaire” story draw a lot of people into the crypto market. It also draw a lot of non-trader, people never done any investing into the market. The crypto fever make people throw money into the pot rapidly and blindly.
In December I even hear people saying they wish they had throw their life saving into the crypto market. That is NOT the right way of investing.
I think BTC will definitely make a come back, it is kind of repeating the history of 2013. But since all the countries try to control the crypto with regulations. Most of the investor will just observe unless there are huge positive news give the crypto market a boost. At the moment crypto market in general got a really strong head wind.
You should only invest (especially this kind of volatile market) with the money you do NOT need. In the short term, making small profit at each bounce back, don’t be too greedy.
BTC also got a big hidden bomb on Tether scandal, I do NOT think they have the capital and once the investigators finds out, they can bring down the biffinex giant and hence BTC. So be very cautious! It is very possible that base on the technical analysis and negative news that BTC will go to next support line, 6000.
Blockchain technology did change the world slowly! I see a lot of positive in the system. However, it is far from perfect yet. Use steemit, as an example. It is not user friendly as Facebook, weibao..etc. but the technical side can be fixed easily in the future. The simple way to put it is, will everyone stay on this platform if there is no profit? The decentralized system, with less regulation really works? The flagging system suppose to self regulate, not for whale war or bullying. But is human really use it correctly? Not everyone want to compose or be artist, lots of people may just want to relax and post something to their friends with boring messages like “I am hungry, feed me”. FB, Twitter, Weibo all spend a lot of money on studying social net work behavior and marketing. Steemit may need to follow suit to become main stream.
At the moment steemit is the few social network that give people reward to stimulate better content. I think it is great and the future will be this way! But if Facebook, weibo start follow suit with this system then steemit will have a giant competitor, and we have to keep that in mind too.
I am NOT posting this to bash BTC or steemit. I am simply want to warn people to be careful and less greedy on profit in the short term. I love steemit! I saw a lot of inspiring artist on this platform! But I still have to face it that the system atm is not perfect and there r still a lot of improvement needed to make it main stream.
On the side note:
Ethereum is very strong and surprisingly well performed. It is one of a few major coin that stay above 50 days moving average. It is looking very positive on the technical analysis point of view.
Same as EOS
And Neo
Disclaimer: all the advice I give out is base on technical analysis, I cannot 100% predict everything correctly. You have to make decisions on how you use your money and invest. I will not be responsible for your decision.